The model makes it 57.0% to Santos, who also holds the clearly better rating at 1837 against 1642 — the largest rating gap pulling against a favourite on this card. Both men are high-volume, high-risk featherweights who absorb far more than the division average: Oki takes 64.0 significant strikes per 15 minutes and Santos 65.4, against a 60.7 average, and both land above average at 56.1 and 57.2. Oki's six-inch reach advantage, 73 inches to 67, is the second factor in the prediction. Santos is the better grappler — 6.21 takedown attempts per 15 minutes against 4.10, and 211 seconds of control against 193, conceding only 163 against Oki's 198. Oki has lost three of his four most recent fights, two by knockout and one by submission; Santos has won three of four. With both men's defensive numbers this poor, the 34% knockout probability is the highest on the card.

Oki is a long, busy distance striker with a worrying defensive record. He lands 44.8 of his 56.1 significant strikes per 15 minutes at distance, well above the 39.8 division average, and his 55% striking defence is actually above the 53% norm — but he absorbs 64.0 strikes per 15 minutes and has lost three of his last four, two by knockout and one by submission. His takedown defence of 58% is above the division's 55%, and his pace ratio of 1.17 says he does not fade.

Santos is a similar shape with more grappling attached. His 57.2 significant strikes landed and 45.1 at distance are both above division level, and his 6.21 takedown attempts per 15 minutes is well above the 4.70 average. He controls 211 seconds per 15 minutes while conceding only 163, the best differential in this fight. His 65.4 strikes absorbed is the highest figure of anyone at UFC 333, which is the obvious vulnerability, and his most recent fight was a knockout loss.

Two fighters who both land a lot and get hit a lot, in a three-round fight, with the reach advantage on one side and the wrestling on the other. Oki's six inches of reach and his above-average distance volume give him the means to fight this at range, which is where he needs it; Santos's answer is the takedown, where he attempts half again as many as Oki and would face a 58% defence. The control-time differential is the single style factor the model weighs most heavily, and it favours Santos. What makes the fight close despite the rating gap is Oki's reach and Santos's willingness to absorb damage. Given both men's absorbed rates, the likeliest endings are a knockout for either side or a scrappy decision.