Review — UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev
Summary
UFC 333, Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi, 24 October. Fourteen bouts, all fourteen verified against both sources. The locked picks went 7 of 14 — 50.0%, log loss 0.7747, Brier 0.2892. The closing line went 12 of 14 on the same fights at 0.6741 and 0.2371. Against our own walk-forward average of 61.5% and 0.6542 this was 11.7 points of hit rate and 0.121 of log loss worse than we should expect. The picks were frozen before the card and the checksum verifies, so there is nothing to discount; the lock itself was applied on the 25th, after the event, and the season tracker footnotes that.
One number explains the whole card. We disagreed with the closing favourite on nine of the fourteen fights and were right on two of them: Reyes over Murzakanov, where the line had Murzakanov at 65%, and Thicknesse over Chopurov, where it had Chopurov at 81%. On the five fights where we agreed with the market we went 5 for 5. Every single one of our seven losses was a fight where we had taken the underdog, and five of those seven ended inside two rounds. That is not a model that reads fights badly; it is a model whose disagreements with the market are, on this card, worth nothing, and it is only fourteen fights.
Worst first. Gugnon at 70.0% and Kody Steele knocked him out in round one. Malkoun at 66.6% and Vagaev took a unanimous decision. Temirov at 64.3% and Kavanagh stopped him in the first. Evloev at 62.8% and Volkanovski stopped him in the second. Dvalishvili at 59.8% and Yan won 48-47 on all three cards. Rowston at 59.6% and Magomedov submitted him in the first. Keita at 58.4% and Pico stopped him in the first.
Ranking movement, bracketed on the snapshot that absorbed the card. Featherweight: Pico up 18 to #17, Keita down 19 to #52, Daniel Santos up 3 to #37. Flyweight: Kavanagh up 15 to #12, Temirov down 7 to #14. Light heavyweight: Krylov down 6 to #20 — the only move Reyes's win over Murzakanov did not cause, since neither of them crossed a rank boundary. Heavyweight: Volkov up 1 to #3, Kuniev down 2 to #9, and Aspinall down 1 to #4 without fighting. Welterweight: Vagaev up 26 to #38. Bantamweight: Thicknesse up 4 to #54. Lightweight: Steele up 25 to #54, Gugnon down 31 to #79. Women's strawweight: Lucindo up 2 to #7. Bantamweight at the top did what it was supposed to: Yan is on the champion's row and Dvalishvili is #1 by rating, 2214 to 2191, because a 48-47 win over a man rated 97 points higher narrowed the gap by 74 points without closing it.
Where we disagree with the official board, and this is the part worth arguing about. Our ranks sit lower than the board's for Pico (#17 against #11), Kavanagh (#12 against #6), Murzakanov (#13 against #7), Krylov (#20 against #15) and Temirov (#14 against #10) — five of the six ranked men on this card, all in the same direction. We rate Reyes higher than the board does, #6 against #8. And two men the board does not rank at all sit high with us: Grant Dawson at lightweight #6 and Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev at light heavyweight #12 after beating Krylov. Note what every one of those low-side gaps has in common: a rating deviation of 153 to 231 points, which is wide. The written explanation in reports/backtest.md for most of them is "the board credits a profile our rating does not reward", and that sentence appears so often that it is not an explanation. CLAUDE.md says every gap should have a real one. I do not think these do yet.
The decision check scored seven judged fights and moved no credit, which is correct under the rule and still worth your attention on one of them. Vagaev's unanimous decision over Malkoun is the fight our own judging model disagrees with most on the card: it gives Malkoun, the official loser, an 86.6% chance he should have won. Because all three judges scored it for Vagaev the card-margin signal is 0.00, so only one of the two available signals points against the result, and SPEC §7 wants two. Oki-Santos is the same shape at 0.626. Thicknesse-Chopurov is the mirror image: the card signal is 1.00 because it was a split, but the model only gives Chopurov 39.2%. In every case one signal, never two.
Two things to argue with me about. First, SPEC §7 was written for three signals and we only have two, because MMADecisions is off limits on its robots.txt, so "two of three" is in practice "both of two" and a single very strong disagreement can never move credit. An 86.6% reading against a unanimous result is the case the rule was for, and it does nothing. I think the threshold needs a second path for a lone extreme signal; that is a SPEC change and it is in the escalation list, not something I have touched. Second, if you are tempted to read the corner-order pattern on this card — we picked the fighter listed second in ten of fourteen and the fighter listed first won eleven — do not. Fourteen fights cannot carry it, and the age pattern that looked the same way was measured properly across 4,314 walk-forward fights and came out the opposite way: the model gives the older fighter 44.0% and he wins 41.7%, so if anything the age penalty is slightly too weak. The nine-of-fourteen here is noise.
How we did
| Us | Closing line | Our backtest average | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fights graded | 14 | 14 | — |
| Hit rate | 50.0% | 85.7% | 61.7% |
| Log loss | 0.7747 | 0.6741 | 0.6537 |
| Brier | 0.2892 | 0.2371 | 0.2308 |
Every pick
| Bout | Our pick | Closing market | Result | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Volkanovski vs Movsar Evloev | 62.8% Movsar Evloev | 50.2% Alexander Volkanovski | Alexander Volkanovski by KO/TKO R2 | wrong |
| Petr Yan vs Merab Dvalishvili | 59.8% Merab Dvalishvili | 57.8% Petr Yan | Petr Yan by Decision - Unanimous R5 | wrong |
| Lone’er Kavanagh vs Ramazan Temirov | 64.3% Ramazan Temirov | 50.8% Lone’er Kavanagh | Lone’er Kavanagh by KO/TKO R1 | wrong |
| Alexander Volkov vs Rizvan Kuniev | 51.7% Alexander Volkov | 52.6% Alexander Volkov | Alexander Volkov by Decision - Unanimous R3 | right |
| Aaron Pico vs Losene Keita | 58.4% Losene Keita | 55.1% Aaron Pico | Aaron Pico by KO/TKO R1 | wrong |
| Azamat Murzakanov vs Dominick Reyes | 55.4% Dominick Reyes | 65.4% Azamat Murzakanov | Dominick Reyes by KO/TKO R1 | right |
| Nikita Krylov vs Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev | 54.2% Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev | 79.3% Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev | Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev by KO/TKO R1 | right |
| Abus Magomedov vs Cam Rowston | 59.6% Cam Rowston | 53.0% Abus Magomedov | Abus Magomedov by Submission R1 | wrong |
| Grant Dawson vs Nurullo Aliev | 55.0% Grant Dawson | 51.9% Grant Dawson | Grant Dawson by Decision - Unanimous R3 | right |
| Colby Thicknesse vs Asaf Chopurov | 61.5% Colby Thicknesse | 81.3% Asaf Chopurov | Colby Thicknesse by Decision - Split R3 | right |
| Abubakar Vagaev vs Jacob Malkoun | 66.6% Jacob Malkoun | 57.9% Abubakar Vagaev | Abubakar Vagaev by Decision - Unanimous R3 | wrong |
| Bolaji Oki vs Daniel Santos | 57.0% Daniel Santos | 52.4% Daniel Santos | Daniel Santos by Decision - Unanimous R3 | right |
| Kody Steele vs Noah Gugnon | 70.0% Noah Gugnon | 58.7% Kody Steele | Kody Steele by KO/TKO R1 | wrong |
| Iasmin Lucindo vs Nicolle Caliari | 72.2% Iasmin Lucindo | 74.3% Iasmin Lucindo | Iasmin Lucindo by Decision - Unanimous R3 | right |
- UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev (2026-10-24): picks were formally locked 2026-10-25, after the event. The checksum verifies and the picks are unchanged, but the lock itself was applied late.
Our biggest misses
- Kody Steele vs Noah Gugnon — we gave 30.0% to Kody Steele, who won. Surprise 1.21.
- Abubakar Vagaev vs Jacob Malkoun — we gave 33.4% to Abubakar Vagaev, who won. Surprise 1.10.
- Lone’er Kavanagh vs Ramazan Temirov — we gave 35.7% to Lone’er Kavanagh, who won. Surprise 1.03.
- Alexander Volkanovski vs Movsar Evloev — we gave 37.2% to Alexander Volkanovski, who won. Surprise 0.99.
- Petr Yan vs Merab Dvalishvili — we gave 40.2% to Petr Yan, who won. Surprise 0.91.
- Abus Magomedov vs Cam Rowston — we gave 40.4% to Abus Magomedov, who won. Surprise 0.91.
Ranking changes
- Middleweight: Cam Rowston moved down 9 to #23 — lost to Abus Magomedov (Submission)
- Middleweight: Jacob Malkoun moved down 6 to #36 — lost to Abubakar Vagaev (Decision - Unanimous)
- Middleweight: Abus Magomedov moved up 3 to #15 — beat Cam Rowston (Submission)
- Light Heavyweight: Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev moved up 8 to #12 — beat Nikita Krylov (KO/TKO)
- Light Heavyweight: Azamat Murzakanov moved down 6 to #13 — lost to Dominick Reyes (KO/TKO)
- Light Heavyweight: Nikita Krylov moved down 6 to #20 — lost to Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev (KO/TKO)
- Lightweight: Noah Gugnon moved down 31 to #79 — lost to Kody Steele (KO/TKO)
- Lightweight: Kody Steele moved up 25 to #54 — beat Noah Gugnon (KO/TKO)
- Lightweight: Bolaji Oki moved up 8 to #72 — lost to Daniel Santos (Decision - Unanimous)
- Heavyweight: Rizvan Kuniev moved down 2 to #9 — lost to Alexander Volkov (Decision - Unanimous)
- Heavyweight: Tom Aspinall moved down 1 to #4 — others around them fought
- Heavyweight: Alexander Volkov moved up 1 to #3 — beat Rizvan Kuniev (Decision - Unanimous)
- Welterweight: Abubakar Vagaev moved up 26 to #38 — beat Jacob Malkoun (Decision - Unanimous)
- Welterweight: Phil Rowe moved up 1 to #64 — others around them fought
- Welterweight: Ramiz Brahimaj moved up 1 to #65 — others around them fought
- Bantamweight: Colby Thicknesse moved up 4 to #54 — beat Asaf Chopurov (Decision - Split)
- Bantamweight: Rafael Estevam moved down 1 to #55 — others around them fought
- Bantamweight: Kai Asakura moved down 1 to #56 — others around them fought
- Featherweight: Losene Keita moved down 19 to #52 — lost to Aaron Pico (KO/TKO)
- Featherweight: Aaron Pico moved up 18 to #17 — beat Losene Keita (KO/TKO)
- Featherweight: Daniel Santos moved up 3 to #37 — beat Bolaji Oki (Decision - Unanimous)
- Flyweight: Lone’er Kavanagh moved up 15 to #12 — beat Ramazan Temirov (KO/TKO)
- Flyweight: Allan Nascimento moved up 9 to #16 — inactivity drift and movement by the fighters around them
- Flyweight: Ramazan Temirov moved down 7 to #14 — lost to Lone’er Kavanagh (KO/TKO)
- Women's Strawweight: Iasmin Lucindo moved up 2 to #7 — beat Nicolle Caliari (Decision - Unanimous)
- Women's Strawweight: Gillian Robertson moved down 1 to #8 — others around them fought
- Women's Strawweight: Yan Xiaonan moved down 1 to #9 — others around them fought
- Bantamweight: Marcus McGhee is now ranked at Bantamweight #21, having been Featherweight #21 — the two ranks are not comparable; the rating itself moved -0.0 (others around them fought)
Decision check
- Petr Yan vs Merab Dvalishvili — Petr Yan by unanimous decision (Darryl Ransom 48–47 · David Lethaby 48–47 · Vito Paolillo 48–47).
our judging model gives the official loser 44%; card margin signal 0.00 (unanimous); no media scorecards.
no change — the evidence agrees with the judges - Alexander Volkov vs Rizvan Kuniev — Alexander Volkov by unanimous decision (Ben Cartlidge 29–28 · Jacob Montalvo 30–27 · Vito Paolillo 30–27).
our judging model gives the official loser 15%; card margin signal 0.00 (unanimous); no media scorecards.
no change — the evidence agrees with the judges - Grant Dawson vs Nurullo Aliev — Grant Dawson by unanimous decision (Clemens Werner 29–27 · Jacob Montalvo 29–27 · Tolly Plested 29–27).
our judging model gives the official loser 1%; card margin signal 0.00 (unanimous); no media scorecards.
no change — the evidence agrees with the judges - Colby Thicknesse vs Asaf Chopurov — Colby Thicknesse by split decision (Ben Cartlidge 29–28 · Darryl Ransom 28–29 · David Lethaby 29–28).
our judging model gives the official loser 39%; card margin signal 1.00 (split); no media scorecards.
no change — 1 of the two available signals points against the winner, and SPEC §7 needs two to agree before credit moves - Abubakar Vagaev vs Jacob Malkoun — Abubakar Vagaev by unanimous decision (Jacob Montalvo 29–28 · Tolly Plested 29–28 · Vito Paolillo 29–28).
our judging model gives the official loser 87%; card margin signal 0.00 (unanimous); no media scorecards.
no change — 1 of the two available signals points against the winner, and SPEC §7 needs two to agree before credit moves - Bolaji Oki vs Daniel Santos — Daniel Santos by unanimous decision (Clemens Werner 29–28 · Darryl Ransom 29–28 · David Lethaby 29–28).
our judging model gives the official loser 63%; card margin signal 0.00 (unanimous); no media scorecards.
no change — 1 of the two available signals points against the winner, and SPEC §7 needs two to agree before credit moves - Iasmin Lucindo vs Nicolle Caliari — Iasmin Lucindo by unanimous decision (Ben Cartlidge 30–27 · Tolly Plested 30–27 · Vito Paolillo 30–27).
our judging model gives the official loser 10%; card margin signal 0.00 (unanimous); no media scorecards.
no change — the evidence agrees with the judges