Krylov holds a slight rating edge, 2010 against 1965, but the model makes it 54.1% to Yakhyaev: the age and experience terms both run against the older man, and Krylov's recent record is three knockout losses in four fights. Krylov is 34 and Yakhyaev is 25, and the age term is the largest single factor in this prediction. Krylov lands more — 52.8 significant strikes per 15 minutes against 49.0 — and attempts more takedowns, 5.48 against 4.69, with 231 seconds of control against 204. Yakhyaev's edges are submissions and durability of position: 0.95 submission attempts per 15 minutes against Krylov's 0.72 and a division average of 0.77, and 0.83 knockdowns per 15 minutes against Krylov's 0.71. Krylov's takedown defence of 53% is below the light heavyweight average of 56% and is the clearest vulnerability on the board. Three of Krylov's last four fights ended in knockout losses, while all three of Yakhyaev's recorded wins were first-round finishes, two by submission. The model gives 51% that this one reaches the judges.

Krylov is an experienced, well-rounded light heavyweight whose recent results have been violent in both directions: knockout wins and knockout losses, with three defeats by strikes in his last four recorded fights. His volume of 52.8 significant strikes per 15 minutes and 231 seconds of control are both above the division averages of 48.2 and 197, and his 77-inch reach is long for the weight. The number that stands out against him is 53% takedown defence, three points below the division and the lowest of the two men here.

Yakhyaev's record in the database is three fights, all first-round wins — one by knockout, two by submission. His 0.95 submission attempts per 15 minutes is the highest figure in this fight and well above the division's 0.77, and his 0.83 knockdowns per 15 minutes is above the 0.64 average. His striking volume of 49.0 is close to division-typical and he concedes 232 seconds of control per 15 minutes, which is a lot, though his fights have been too short for that figure to mean much. With three fights of evidence his profile is pulled substantially toward the light heavyweight average.

The shape of the fight is an experienced pressure fighter with a questionable chin against a young finisher who has not been past the first round. Krylov's path is volume and control — he lands more and holds position longer, and over three rounds that is a decision. Yakhyaev's path is the early exchange, where his knockdown and submission rates both sit above the division and Krylov's recent losses suggest an opening. Krylov's 53% takedown defence against Yakhyaev's submission rate is the most dangerous interaction on the board for the favourite: if Yakhyaev gets him down, the submission numbers say something can happen quickly. The nine-year age gap is what keeps this from being a wider margin.