Rowston is unbeaten in his three recorded UFC fights and holds the better rating, 2102 against 2029, and the model makes him the 59.6% favourite. Rowston lands considerably more — 55.6 significant strikes per 15 minutes against Magomedov's 47.4, against a middleweight average of 49.1 — and absorbs fewer, 49.6 against 51.7. His ground striking of 19.7 per 15 minutes is the highest figure in this fight and well above the division's 13.3. The two men are physically identical on reach at 78 inches each. Magomedov's edges are grappling volume and submissions: 0.73 submission attempts per 15 minutes against 0.61, and 221 seconds of control against 210, with three of his four recent wins coming by submission. Magomedov is 36 and Rowston is 31, and that age term — set against Rowston's wider rating uncertainty of ±217 to ±154 — is what keeps the margin narrow. The model gives 52% that it goes to the scorecards.

Magomedov's four most recent results are three wins and one loss, with submissions featuring in three of them — two for and one against. His striking volume of 47.4 significant strikes per 15 minutes is below the division average of 49.1, but his 47% accuracy is above the 46% norm and his 45% takedown accuracy is well above the 41% average. He controls 221 seconds per 15 minutes against a division figure of 196 and concedes 190. The profile reads as a grappler who strikes efficiently rather than often.

Rowston has won all three of his recorded fights, two by knockout and one by decision. His 55.6 significant strikes landed per 15 minutes is six and a half above the division average, his 49.6 absorbed is four below it, and his 19.7 ground strikes per 15 minutes says he does real damage from top position. His takedown numbers are close to Magomedov's — 4.20 attempts at 42% accuracy against 4.17 at 45% — and the two men defend takedowns at 56% and 57%, so neither is likely to dominate position outright.

With the physical dimensions identical and the takedown games evenly matched, this comes down to rate of work against efficiency of finish. Rowston lands eight more significant strikes per 15 minutes and absorbs two fewer, which over three rounds is a decision if nothing else happens. Magomedov's counter is the submission threat: at 0.73 attempts per 15 minutes against a man who has faced few, and with a 45% takedown conversion rate, he has a route to ending it that Rowston's record has not yet been tested against. The model's preference for Rowston rests on the style numbers and the rating pointing the same way: he lands eight more significant strikes per 15 minutes, absorbs two fewer, and is rated 2102 against 2029. What argues against it is Magomedov's submission threat and the fact that Rowston's rating is the less certain of the two, at ±217 against ±154 — three recorded fights against eight.