Temirov carries the clearer recent form and the bigger power numbers. His 0.99 knockdowns per 15 minutes is well above the flyweight average of 0.64 and half again Kavanagh's 0.66, and he has won all three of his recorded UFC fights, two by knockout. The striking volume is nearly identical — 53.4 significant strikes landed per 15 minutes for Temirov against 54.3 for Kavanagh — but Temirov absorbs fewer, 53.4 against 55.7, and defends at 56% against Kavanagh's 54%. Kavanagh's edges are physical and defensive: a four-inch reach advantage at 67 inches to 63, and 69% takedown defence against Temirov's 64%. Kavanagh's pace ratio of 0.94 is the concern — his output falls in the later rounds, where Temirov's rises to 1.12. The rating gap is the largest single factor, with Temirov at 1863 and Kavanagh at 1675. The model makes it 64.3% to Temirov.

Kavanagh is a rangy distance fighter who has been inconsistent against step-up opposition: a decision win over Brandon Moreno sits alongside a submission loss to Brandon Royval and a knockout loss to Charles Johnson. He lands 43.6 of his 54.3 significant strikes at distance and defends takedowns at 69%, five points better than Temirov and ten above the division's 59%. The weak point is his late-round output — a pace ratio of 0.94 means he lands less in round three than in rounds one and two, in a division where the average is 1.15.

Temirov is more compact and more dangerous in short exchanges. His knockdown rate of 0.99 per 15 minutes is the standout number, and both of his knockout wins came in the first round. He gives up four inches of reach and lands the same 43.5 strikes at distance as Kavanagh, which suggests he is closing range to do it rather than winning it from outside. His striking defence of 56% and absorbed rate of 53.4 are both marginally better than the division average.

The fight is a range contest with a power imbalance. Kavanagh has the longer levers and the better takedown defence, so if he can keep the fight at his distance for three rounds he has the tools to win a decision — but his falling late-round output and his two finishing losses suggest he is vulnerable the longer the exchanges continue. Temirov needs to get inside the reach, where his knockdown rate says he hurts people. The model gives a 37% chance the fight ends by knockout, the second highest on the card, and 48% that it reaches the judges.