This is a rematch of a fight Yan won by unanimous decision, and the numbers explain why it was close. Yan is the better striker by a clear margin — 63.9 significant strikes landed per 15 minutes at 50% accuracy against Dvalishvili's 58.1 at 43%, with 51.2 of those at distance against 42.5. Dvalishvili's takedown volume is the outlier statistic on this entire card: 12.4 attempts per 15 minutes against a bantamweight average of 4.68, nearly triple the division and almost three times Yan's 4.45. Yan's takedown defence is excellent at 72%, the best figure among the twenty-eight fighters on this card, which is what kept the first fight competitive. Dvalishvili still out-controls him 285 seconds to 223 per 15 minutes and concedes only 127. Yan absorbs 62.5 strikes per 15 minutes against Dvalishvili's 53.8, a real durability gap over five rounds. The model makes Dvalishvili a 59.9% favourite and gives the fight a 54% chance of going to the scorecards.

Yan is a volume counter-striker with the sharpest accuracy in this division's top ranks. His 50% significant strike accuracy and 55% striking defence both sit above the bantamweight averages of 43% and 52%, and his 0.75 knockdowns per 15 minutes is above the 0.68 average. He is a switch-stance fighter who does most of his work at range — 51.2 of his 63.9 strikes land at distance — and his pace ratio of 1.28 is the highest in this fight, meaning his output climbs in the later rounds. His 72% takedown defence is the foundation of everything else: it is what lets a striker fight a wrestler of this volume without the fight being taken away from him.

Dvalishvili's profile is built on a single overwhelming number. At 12.4 takedown attempts per 15 minutes he attempts a takedown roughly every 72 seconds of fight time, and although his 34% accuracy is close to the division's 35%, the sheer volume produces 285 seconds of control per 15 minutes against a 198-second average. He concedes only 127 seconds, the lowest figure in this matchup. His striking is not negligible — 58.1 landed per 15 minutes is above the division average — but at 43% accuracy it functions mostly as a way into the clinch. He absorbs 53.8 strikes per 15 minutes, comfortably fewer than Yan.

The matchup is the same question as the first fight: does relentless takedown entry beat elite takedown defence over twenty-five minutes? Yan's 72% defence means roughly nine of Dvalishvili's thirty-odd attempts across a five-round fight would land, and Dvalishvili does not need much more than that to bank control time and rounds. Yan's path is the one he has already walked — stuff the entries, punish the exits, and win the striking exchanges on accuracy, where he holds a seven-point edge. The two factors that move this prediction most both favour Dvalishvili: his control-time differential and his better output-to-absorbed ratio. Yan's distance striking is the one feature pulling the other way. It should be close again, and the scorecards are the likeliest destination.