48%
vs
52%
Our win probability
Your pick
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How it ends
Knockout33.8%
Decision49.8%
Submission16.3%
What moves it most
Upset watch: the model still gives 48% to the underdog. Two fights in five at this price go the other way.
Limited data: at least one of these fighters has a thin or uncertain record, so treat this prediction with caution.
- rating difference — moves the model toward Evan Elder (value +2.01)
- age difference — moves the model toward Samuel Sanches (value +0.58)
- difference in rating certainty — no side — this is how certain the ratings are, not who is better (value -1.44)
Tale of the tape
| Evan Elder | Samuel Sanches | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-2 | 0-0 |
| Last fight | won vs Gauge Young (Decision - Unanimous, 2025-04-26) | no earlier UFC fight |
| Country | unknown | unknown |
| Height | 70" | 70" |
| Reach | 72" | 74" |
| Age | 29.6 | 23.8 |
| Stance | Switch | Orthodox |
| Weight class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Our rank | #65 | unrated |
| Style label | balanced | unknown |