31%
vs
69%
Our win probability
Your pick
Loading your picks…
How it ends
Knockout28.4%
Decision57.1%
Submission14.5%
What moves it most
- age difference — moves the model toward Melquizael Costa (value +0.80)
- rating difference — moves the model toward Melquizael Costa (value -1.02)
- output against strikes absorbed — moves the model toward Melquizael Costa (value +0.46)
Tale of the tape
| Jared Gordon | Melquizael Costa | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 9-8 (1 NC) | 7-3 |
| Last fight | lost vs Jim Miller (Submission, 2026-05-09) | lost vs Arnold Allen (Decision - Unanimous, 2026-05-16) |
| Country | U.S | Brazil |
| Height | 69" | 70" |
| Reach | 68" | 71" |
| Age | 38.2 | 30.2 |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Weight class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Our rank | #39 | #20 |
| Style label | balanced | balanced |
Style profile
Percentile within the division · the dashed ring is average · outward is always better
Tap a metric to hide or show it — three is the minimum.
Tale of the tape
Division percentile. The hover carries the raw numbers.
Jared Gordon
Melquizael Costa
The numbers behind it
Rates are per 15 minutes of fight time, adjusted for the quality of
what the opponent usually allows. Defence and accuracy figures are percentages. A wider ±
means fewer rounds of evidence, and on the chart it is the whisker along that axis.
| Metric | Jared Gordon | Division | Melquizael Costa | Division |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strikes landed /15 min | 56.2 ± 19.2 89th percentile | 47.8 | 53.3 ± 5.6 78th percentile | 47.8 |
| Strike avoidance absorbed /15 min | 63.1 ± 10.8 24th percentile | 58.5 | 56.8 ± 7.2 75th percentile | 58.5 |
| Takedown attempts /15 min | 5.06 ± 0.88 74th percentile | 4.72 | 4.58 ± 0.74 44th percentile | 4.72 |
| Takedown defence % | 55 ± 3 33rd percentile | 54 | 49 ± 14 2nd percentile | 54 |
| Control time s /15 min | 216 ± 52 81st percentile | 193 | 207 ± 22 74th percentile | 193 |
| Striking defence % | 53 ± 1 50th percentile | 53 | 49 ± 6 3rd percentile | 53 |
| Knockdowns /15 min | 0.69 ± 0.09 63rd percentile | 0.67 | 0.69 ± 0.20 63rd percentile | 0.67 |
| Submission attempts /15 min | 0.44 ± 0.44 9th percentile | 0.64 | 0.61 ± 0.18 61st percentile | 0.64 |
| Metric | Jared Gordon | Division | Melquizael Costa | Division |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strikes landed /15 min | — | — | 61.9 ± 6.7 8th percentile | 63.6 |
| Strike avoidance absorbed /15 min | — | — | 59.6 ± 4.6 83rd percentile | 62.5 |
| Takedown attempts /15 min | — | — | 2.49 ± 0.98 0th percentile | 3.73 |
| Takedown defence % | — | — | 49 ± 49 0th percentile | 63 |
| Control time s /15 min | — | — | 190 ± 27 92nd percentile | 174 |
| Striking defence % | — | — | 52 ± 16 100th percentile | 48 |
| Knockdowns /15 min | — | — | 1.48 ± 0.32 96th percentile | 1.36 |
| Submission attempts /15 min | — | — | 0.15 ± 0.15 0th percentile | 0.45 |
| Metric | Jared Gordon | Division | Melquizael Costa | Division |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strikes landed /15 min | — | — | 55.3 ± 6.5 69th percentile | 54.9 |
| Strike avoidance absorbed /15 min | — | — | 72.3 ± 21.3 0th percentile | 68.6 |
| Takedown attempts /15 min | — | — | 3.64 ± 1.48 0th percentile | 5.40 |
| Takedown defence % | — | — | 51 ± 51 0th percentile | 60 |
| Control time s /15 min | — | — | 182 ± 22 0th percentile | 196 |
| Striking defence % | — | — | 50 ± 14 100th percentile | 45 |
| Knockdowns /15 min | — | — | 0.31 ± 0.01 0th percentile | 0.47 |
| Submission attempts /15 min | — | — | 0.06 ± 0.06 85th percentile | 0.06 |