Ciryl Gane is the pick at 58.3% against Josh Hokit's 41.7%, on a rating gap of 2351 to 2196 that is wider than it looks because Hokit carries 193 points of uncertainty to Gane's 143. The edge the model names first is attrition: Gane absorbs 50.6 significant strikes per 15 minutes against Hokit's 63.1, in a division that averages 57.0. Age pulls the other way and pulls hard — Gane is 36 on fight night and Hokit 29 — and it is the single largest listed factor, against Gane. Hokit's output numbers look enormous at 67.1 strikes per 15 minutes, but they carry an uncertainty of 82.3, which is larger than the number itself; four recorded fights cannot support a volume read. A knockout is the likeliest ending at 46.1% with a decision close behind at 44.4%, and the 58.3% should be read as a bet on defence against an unmeasured workload.

Gane is the most purely technical striker in the division and the numbers say so without ambiguity. He lands 62.8 significant strikes per 15 minutes against a heavyweight average of 49.4, at 53% accuracy against 47%, and 49.1 of those come at distance against an average of 34.1. His defence is the other half: 51% of incoming strikes miss against a division average of 47%, and he takes 50.6 per 15 minutes where the division concedes 57.0. He is not a wrestler in either direction — 3.7 takedown attempts against 3.9, 174 seconds of control against 203 — and his takedown defence of 56% is exactly average, which is the hole Jon Jones found in 2023. Two cautions: his output figure carries 29.8 of uncertainty, and his last five outings include a no contest against Tom Aspinall stopped in round one.

Hokit is the opposite kind of record — four fights, all wins, three by knockout, and uncertainties wide enough to swallow most conclusions. What is measurable is that he fights at a high volume and pays for it: 67.1 landed against 63.1 absorbed, where Gane's figures are 62.8 and 50.6. He grapples more than Gane does, 219 seconds of control per 15 minutes against 174, with takedown defence of 61% against Gane's 56%, and his 17.9 clinch strikes per 15 minutes is the one number on which he clearly exceeds both Gane and the division. His wins over Derrick Lewis and Curtis Blaydes are the two results that moved his rating to 2196, and the second of them went the distance.

The fight turns on whether Hokit can make it a phone-box fight. At range the comparison is one-sided in a way the method split reflects: Gane's 49.1 distance strikes per 15 minutes against a man absorbing 63.1 is where the 46.1% knockout probability comes from, and it is mostly Gane's. In the clinch and on the floor Hokit's 219 seconds of control and 17.9 clinch strikes meet Gane's average takedown defence, and that is the version of the fight where the 58.3% is wrong. The age term is doing real work against Gane here and it is worth taking seriously rather than arguing with: seven and a half years is the largest single factor in this bout, and the model still has Gane ahead because the striking gap is bigger. Over five rounds Gane's pace ratio of 1.09 against Hokit's 1.13 says neither man fades, so a decision at 44.4% is nearly as likely as the knockout.