Bilal Hasan is the pick at 78.7% against Luis Gurule's 21.3%, the most lopsided number on this card, and it rests on a rating gap of 1704 to 1360 rather than on anything stylistic. Read the uncertainty before the margin: Hasan has one recorded UFC fight and carries 291 points of deviation, so this is a wide number dressed as a confident one. Age adds to it — Hasan is 25 on fight night and Gurule 33 — and so does attrition: Gurule absorbs 66.5 significant strikes per 15 minutes against a flyweight average of 52.7, which is the worst figure in either camp. Gurule has also lost four of his last five. A decision is the likeliest ending at 52.7%, and the 78.4% is the thinnest-sourced high probability on the card.

Hasan has one UFC appearance, a second-round knockout of Nilson Rojas in August 2026, and every number below comes from it. They sit almost exactly on the flyweight averages: 52.3 significant strikes landed per 15 minutes against 52.0, 0.423 accuracy against 0.42, 197 seconds of control against 196, 4.5 takedown attempts against 4.8. The uncertainties are the real content — plus or minus 10.6 on clinch strikes, plus or minus 189 on control conceded, plus or minus 0.88 on his KO-finish share — and his reach and stance are not recorded at all. What the rating of 1704 is actually built on is one win and the flyweight prior. Gurule is thoroughly measured and the measurements are poor. He lands 55.7 strikes per 15 minutes, above the division's 52.0, and 46.0 of them at distance against 42.0, so he is willing; but he absorbs 66.5 against the division's 52.7, which is 14 strikes per 15 minutes worse than average and by far the clearest edge anyone has in this fight. He barely engages inside — 6.4 clinch and 5.6 ground strikes per 15 minutes against division averages of 11.2 and 11.6 — and his takedown accuracy of 0.303 is below the 0.35 average, though his takedown defence of 0.617 is above it. One bookkeeping note worth seeing: his rank of 75 is recorded at bantamweight while this bout is at flyweight, because the ranked division follows the last division fought in, so that number is not comparable with Hasan's flyweight 20. He is 33, has been out 5.1 months, and his last five read loss, win, loss, loss, loss. The fight the numbers describe is Hasan hitting a man who gets hit a great deal, and that is genuinely the main mechanism rather than a summary of the rating gap: 14 extra strikes absorbed per 15 minutes is a large and well-measured hole, and the one figure here that does not depend on a single fight. Gurule's route is volume and durability — he has been stopped twice in five but mostly loses decisions, and against a debutant's gas tank a third round he has seen before is worth something; his pace ratio of 1.42 against the division's 1.13 says his output rises late. The 78.7% is where I would push back on the model hardest on this card. It is one fight of evidence against five, and the sensible way to hold it is as the flyweight base rate for a prospect against a four-in-five loser, not as a 78% read on a matchup.