Your pick
How it ends
What moves it most
- rating difference — moves the model toward Beatriz Mesquita (value -1.43)
- UFC experience — moves the model toward Beatriz Mesquita (value +1.32)
- difference in rating certainty — no side — this is how certain the ratings are, not who is better (value -0.71)
Summary
Beatriz Mesquita, ranked fifth at women's bantamweight on a rating of 1783, is the pick at 62.0% against Macy Chiasson's 38.0%. The rating gap is the largest single factor in that number. Mesquita has won all three of her UFC fights, each by submission inside two rounds. Chiasson has lost her last three decisions, and her rating of 1641 puts her 14th. Decision is the most likely ending at 56.1%, ahead of knockout at 26.8% and submission at 17.1%. Mesquita's rating rests on three fights, so it carries wider uncertainty (plus or minus 214 against 144 for Chiasson).
Tale of the tape
| Macy Chiasson | Beatriz Mesquita | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 8-6 | 3-0 |
| Last fight | lost vs Ailin Perez (Decision - Unanimous, 2026-02-28) | won vs Melissa Mullins (Submission, 2026-06-20) |
| Country | U.S. | Brazil |
| Height | 71" | unknown |
| Reach | 72" | unknown |
| Age | 35.3 | 35.6 |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Weight class | Women's Bantamweight | Women's Bantamweight |
| Our rank | #13 | #4 |
| Style label | clinch grinder | grappler |
Style profile
Tale of the tape
The numbers behind it
| Metric | Macy Chiasson | Division | Beatriz Mesquita | Division |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strikes landed /15 min | 50.3 ± 4.7 14th percentile | 52.2 | 52.3 ± 2.0 30th percentile | 52.2 |
| Strike avoidance absorbed /15 min | 55.4 ± 12.6 74th percentile | 61.5 | 58.3 ± 38.3 38th percentile | 61.5 |
| Takedown attempts /15 min | 4.13 ± 0.88 78th percentile | 3.74 | 3.85 ± 1.32 62nd percentile | 3.74 |
| Takedown defence % | 64 ± 13 85th percentile | 58 | 57 ± 57 31st percentile | 58 |
| Control time s /15 min | 228 ± 11 54th percentile | 228 | 248 ± 232 74th percentile | 228 |
| Striking defence % | 50 ± 6 6th percentile | 52 | 54 ± 20 74th percentile | 52 |
| Knockdowns /15 min | 0.74 ± 0.05 58th percentile | 0.74 | 0.73 ± 0.16 34th percentile | 0.74 |
| Submission attempts /15 min | 0.37 ± 0.08 58th percentile | 0.37 | 0.63 ± 3.06 98th percentile | 0.37 |
Rating over time
Full analysis
Macy Chiasson lands 50.3 significant strikes per 15 minutes at 44.3% accuracy, close to the division average of 52.2 landed and 44.5% accuracy. She attempts 4.1 takedowns per 15 minutes, against a division average of 3.7, defends 63.6% of the takedowns thrown at her, and controls her opponents for about 228 seconds per 15 minutes. Her recent record is thin: decision losses to Ailin Perez in February 2026, Yana Santos in October 2025 and Ketlen Vieira in May 2025, after a doctor's-stoppage win over Mayra Bueno Silva and a first-round submission of Pannie Kianzad in 2024.
Beatriz Mesquita, also known as Bia, lands 52.3 significant strikes per 15 minutes at 45.0% accuracy, essentially the division average, and attempts 3.9 takedowns per 15 minutes. Her record is short but consistent: first-round submissions of Montse Rendon in March 2026 and Melissa Mullins in June 2026, and a second-round submission of Irina Alekseeva in October 2025. With three fights behind her, most of her style numbers carry wide uncertainty. Her control time of about 248 seconds per 15 minutes, for example, could sit anywhere in a very wide band, so it should be read as a direction rather than a measurement.
The two meet as strikers of equal volume, so the fight turns on the takedown and grappling exchanges. Both attempt takedowns at above-average rates, Mesquita is the more accurate at 37.6% against Chiasson's 36.0%, and her wins show a habit of finishing on the mat quickly. The model makes Mesquita the pick at 62.0%, with Chiasson at 38.0%, driven mostly by the rating difference; Chiasson's smaller rating uncertainty pulls the number back toward her, but not far. The most likely outcome is a decision at 56.1%, with a knockout at 26.8% and a submission at 17.1%. The submission figure is the least certain of the three, because it leans on Mesquita's three finishes.