83%
vs
17%
Our win probability
Your pick
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How it ends
Knockout36.7%
Decision46.8%
Submission16.5%
What moves it most
- age difference — moves the model toward Donte Johnson (value -1.08)
- rating difference — moves the model toward Donte Johnson (value +2.56)
- control time against control conceded — moves the model toward Donte Johnson (value +0.95)
Tale of the tape
| Donte Johnson | Cesar Almeida | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-0 | 3-3 |
| Last fight | won vs Eric McConico (KO/TKO, 2026-08-15) | lost vs Damian Pinas (KO/TKO, 2026-07-11) |
| Country | unknown | unknown |
| Height | 68" | 73" |
| Reach | 74" | 74" |
| Age | 27.8 | 38.6 |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Weight class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Our rank | #23 | #51 |
| Style label | balanced | balanced |
Style profile
Percentile within the division · the dashed ring is average · outward is always better
Tap a metric to hide or show it — three is the minimum.
Tale of the tape
Division percentile. The hover carries the raw numbers.
Donte Johnson
Cesar Almeida
The numbers behind it
Rates are per 15 minutes of fight time, adjusted for the quality of
what the opponent usually allows. Defence and accuracy figures are percentages. A wider ±
means fewer rounds of evidence, and on the chart it is the whisker along that axis.
| Metric | Donte Johnson | Division | Cesar Almeida | Division |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strikes landed /15 min | 50.1 ± 6.0 41st percentile | 49.2 | 51.0 ± 6.3 51st percentile | 49.2 |
| Strike avoidance absorbed /15 min | 50.2 ± 22.2 86th percentile | 53.6 | 49.2 ± 14.0 95th percentile | 53.6 |
| Takedown attempts /15 min | 3.70 ± 2.32 36th percentile | 4.06 | 3.28 ± 2.45 11th percentile | 4.06 |
| Takedown defence % | 56 ± 20 54th percentile | 53 | 52 ± 4 20th percentile | 53 |
| Control time s /15 min | 194 ± 18 34th percentile | 196 | 186 ± 32 25th percentile | 196 |
| Striking defence % | 52 ± 12 84th percentile | 50 | 48 ± 7 5th percentile | 50 |
| Knockdowns /15 min | 0.69 ± 0.47 65th percentile | 0.62 | 0.64 ± 0.10 49th percentile | 0.62 |
| Submission attempts /15 min | 0.71 ± 0.14 64th percentile | 0.73 | 0.61 ± 0.39 32nd percentile | 0.73 |
Nothing to tabulate for this view.
Nothing to tabulate for this view.