Charles Oliveira
44%
vs
56%
Our win probability
Diego Lopes
Your pick
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How it ends
Knockout38.4%
Decision44.1%
Submission17.6%
What moves it most
Upset watch: the model still gives 44% to the underdog. Two fights in five at this price go the other way.
- output against strikes absorbed — moves the model toward Charles Oliveira (value -1.07)
- distance striking against distance defence — moves the model toward Diego Lopes (value -0.27)
- age difference — moves the model toward Diego Lopes (value +0.52)
Tale of the tape
| Charles Oliveira | Diego Lopes | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 25-11 (1 NC) | 7-3 |
| Last fight | won vs Max Holloway (Decision - Unanimous, 2026-03-07) | won vs Steve Garcia (KO/TKO, 2026-06-14) |
| Country | Brazil | Brazil |
| Height | 70" | 71" |
| Reach | 74" | 72" |
| Age | 37.2 | 32.0 |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Weight class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Our rank | #3 | #3 |
| Style label | grappler | power puncher |
Style profile
Percentile within the division · the dashed ring is average · outward is always better
Tap a metric to hide or show it — three is the minimum.
Tale of the tape
Division percentile. The hover carries the raw numbers.
Charles Oliveira
Diego Lopes
The numbers behind it
Rates are per 15 minutes of fight time, adjusted for the quality of
what the opponent usually allows. Defence and accuracy figures are percentages. A wider ±
means fewer rounds of evidence, and on the chart it is the whisker along that axis.
| Metric | Charles Oliveira | Division | Diego Lopes | Division |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strikes landed /15 min | 45.6 ± 3.9 5th percentile | 47.8 | 54.7 ± 8.0 86th percentile | 47.8 |
| Strike avoidance absorbed /15 min | 52.1 ± 10.8 95th percentile | 58.5 | 64.4 ± 6.6 16th percentile | 58.5 |
| Takedown attempts /15 min | 5.31 ± 1.01 88th percentile | 4.72 | 3.79 ± 1.49 10th percentile | 4.72 |
| Takedown defence % | 56 ± 5 46th percentile | 54 | 64 ± 17 98th percentile | 54 |
| Control time s /15 min | 309 ± 193 98th percentile | 193 | 206 ± 18 74th percentile | 193 |
| Striking defence % | 48 ± 7 1st percentile | 53 | 50 ± 4 7th percentile | 53 |
| Knockdowns /15 min | 0.65 ± 0.08 32nd percentile | 0.67 | 0.85 ± 0.41 92nd percentile | 0.67 |
| Submission attempts /15 min | 1.25 ± 1.02 99th percentile | 0.64 | 0.58 ± 0.34 49th percentile | 0.64 |
| Metric | Charles Oliveira | Division | Diego Lopes | Division |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strikes landed /15 min | 57.9 ± 13.2 2nd percentile | 63.6 | 62.6 ± 3.1 17th percentile | 63.6 |
| Strike avoidance absorbed /15 min | 56.0 ± 15.2 98th percentile | 62.5 | 63.4 ± 10.3 21st percentile | 62.5 |
| Takedown attempts /15 min | 4.83 ± 2.54 94th percentile | 3.73 | 2.41 ± 0.46 0th percentile | 3.73 |
| Takedown defence % | 63 ± 4 48th percentile | 63 | 63 ± 17 45th percentile | 63 |
| Control time s /15 min | 268 ± 217 98th percentile | 174 | 190 ± 15 92nd percentile | 174 |
| Striking defence % | 45 ± 7 2nd percentile | 48 | 51 ± 10 100th percentile | 48 |
| Knockdowns /15 min | 1.30 ± 0.16 19th percentile | 1.36 | 1.48 ± 0.15 100th percentile | 1.36 |
| Submission attempts /15 min | 0.91 ± 1.08 98th percentile | 0.45 | 0.13 ± 0.13 0th percentile | 0.45 |
| Metric | Charles Oliveira | Division | Diego Lopes | Division |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strikes landed /15 min | 52.8 ± 17.7 4th percentile | 54.9 | 55.6 ± 1.1 85th percentile | 54.9 |
| Strike avoidance absorbed /15 min | 65.5 ± 26.3 96th percentile | 68.6 | 75.9 ± 17.2 0th percentile | 68.6 |
| Takedown attempts /15 min | 5.94 ± 4.60 96th percentile | 5.40 | 3.78 ± 0.39 0th percentile | 5.40 |
| Takedown defence % | 62 ± 38 88th percentile | 60 | 56 ± 7 0th percentile | 60 |
| Control time s /15 min | 226 ± 255 96th percentile | 196 | 181 ± 4 0th percentile | 196 |
| Striking defence % | 44 ± 8 4th percentile | 45 | 49 ± 17 100th percentile | 45 |
| Knockdowns /15 min | 0.45 ± 0.15 27th percentile | 0.47 | 0.31 ± 0.01 0th percentile | 0.47 |
| Submission attempts /15 min | 0.12 ± 0.50 96th percentile | 0.06 | 0.06 ± 0.06 85th percentile | 0.06 |