Ian Machado Garry
63%
vs
37%
Our win probability
Your pick
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How it ends
Knockout28.4%
Decision54.9%
Submission16.7%
What moves it most
Limited data: at least one of these fighters has a thin or uncertain record, so treat this prediction with caution.
- distance striking against distance defence — moves the model toward Ian Machado Garry (value +0.25)
- age difference — moves the model toward Ian Machado Garry (value -0.42)
- UFC experience — moves the model toward Yaroslav Amosov (value +1.47)
Tale of the tape
| Ian Machado Garry | Yaroslav Amosov | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 10-2 | 2-0 |
| Last fight | lost vs Islam Makhachev (Decision - Unanimous, 2026-08-15) | won vs Joel Alvarez (Submission, 2026-05-09) |
| Country | Ireland | Ukraine |
| Height | 75" | unknown |
| Reach | 74" | unknown |
| Age | 29.1 | 33.3 |
| Stance | Orthodox | unknown |
| Weight class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Our rank | #5 | #4 |
| Style label | power puncher | balanced |
Style profile
Percentile within the division · the dashed ring is average · outward is always better
Tap a metric to hide or show it — three is the minimum.
Tale of the tape
Division percentile. The hover carries the raw numbers.
Ian Machado Garry
Yaroslav Amosov
The numbers behind it
Rates are per 15 minutes of fight time, adjusted for the quality of
what the opponent usually allows. Defence and accuracy figures are percentages. A wider ±
means fewer rounds of evidence, and on the chart it is the whisker along that axis.
| Metric | Ian Machado Garry | Division | Yaroslav Amosov | Division |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strikes landed /15 min | 55.5 ± 8.9 79th percentile | 48.2 | 47.4 ± 12.9 18th percentile | 48.2 |
| Strike avoidance absorbed /15 min | 45.0 ± 11.0 98th percentile | 54.3 | 52.2 ± 31.6 71st percentile | 54.3 |
| Takedown attempts /15 min | 3.75 ± 0.82 35th percentile | 4.21 | 5.49 ± 19.44 92nd percentile | 4.21 |
| Control time s /15 min | 192 ± 10 55th percentile | 189 | 212 ± 347 81st percentile | 189 |
| Striking defence % | 52 ± 1 35th percentile | 52 | 52 ± 8 64th percentile | 52 |
| Knockdowns /15 min | 0.70 ± 0.08 65th percentile | 0.68 | 0.67 ± 0.08 31st percentile | 0.68 |
| Submission attempts /15 min | 0.41 ± 0.12 35th percentile | 0.49 | 0.66 ± 2.46 95th percentile | 0.49 |
| Metric | Ian Machado Garry | Division | Yaroslav Amosov | Division |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strikes landed /15 min | 68.6 ± 3.7 26th percentile | 70.1 | — | — |
| Strike avoidance absorbed /15 min | 52.1 ± 29.1 94th percentile | 65.3 | — | — |
| Takedown attempts /15 min | 2.82 ± 1.82 90th percentile | 2.15 | — | — |
| Takedown defence % | 65 ± 3 45th percentile | 65 | — | — |
| Control time s /15 min | 174 ± 9 70th percentile | 170 | — | — |
| Striking defence % | 52 ± 3 14th percentile | 53 | — | — |
| Knockdowns /15 min | 1.39 ± 0.25 22nd percentile | 1.50 | — | — |
| Submission attempts /15 min | 0.17 ± 0.18 94th percentile | 0.10 | — | — |
| Metric | Ian Machado Garry | Division | Yaroslav Amosov | Division |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strikes landed /15 min | 65.5 ± 5.7 18th percentile | 66.5 | — | — |
| Strike avoidance absorbed /15 min | 52.1 ± 28.8 92nd percentile | 57.3 | — | — |
| Takedown attempts /15 min | 3.71 ± 4.10 92nd percentile | 2.98 | — | — |
| Takedown defence % | 66 ± 14 15th percentile | 68 | — | — |
| Control time s /15 min | 200 ± 1 52nd percentile | 200 | — | — |
| Striking defence % | 53 ± 2 78th percentile | 52 | — | — |
| Knockdowns /15 min | 0.67 ± 0.46 8th percentile | 0.75 | — | — |
| Submission attempts /15 min | 0.32 ± 0.51 98th percentile | 0.23 | — | — |