Chase Hooper
40%
vs
60%
Our win probability
Your pick
Loading your picks…
How it ends
Knockout30.4%
Decision54.0%
Submission15.6%
What moves it most
Upset watch: the model still gives 40% to the underdog. Two fights in five at this price go the other way.
- rating difference — moves the model toward Chris Padilla (value -2.70)
- distance striking against distance defence — moves the model toward Chris Padilla (value -0.29)
- output against strikes absorbed — moves the model toward Chase Hooper (value -0.98)
Tale of the tape
| Chase Hooper | Chris Padilla | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 9-5 | 5-0-1 |
| Last fight | won vs Mitch Ramirez (Submission, 2026-07-18) | won vs Nasrat Haqparast (Submission, 2026-08-22) |
| Country | U.S | unknown |
| Height | 73" | 69" |
| Reach | 74" | 74" |
| Age | 27.2 | 31.2 |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Weight class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Our rank | #51 | #9 |
| Style label | grappler | balanced |
Style profile
Percentile within the division · the dashed ring is average · outward is always better
Tap a metric to hide or show it — three is the minimum.
Tale of the tape
Division percentile. The hover carries the raw numbers.
Chase Hooper
Chris Padilla
The numbers behind it
Rates are per 15 minutes of fight time, adjusted for the quality of
what the opponent usually allows. Defence and accuracy figures are percentages. A wider ±
means fewer rounds of evidence, and on the chart it is the whisker along that axis.
| Metric | Chase Hooper | Division | Chris Padilla | Division |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strikes landed /15 min | 48.2 ± 2.5 29th percentile | 47.8 | 57.1 ± 22.1 92nd percentile | 47.8 |
| Strike avoidance absorbed /15 min | 52.8 ± 15.6 92nd percentile | 58.5 | 63.4 ± 11.9 20th percentile | 58.5 |
| Takedown attempts /15 min | 6.03 ± 3.56 94th percentile | 4.72 | 4.56 ± 0.49 43rd percentile | 4.72 |
| Takedown defence % | 49 ± 21 3rd percentile | 54 | 64 ± 26 94th percentile | 54 |
| Control time s /15 min | 234 ± 112 90th percentile | 193 | 197 ± 12 57th percentile | 193 |
| Striking defence % | 51 ± 6 12th percentile | 53 | 53 ± 1 49th percentile | 53 |
| Knockdowns /15 min | 0.67 ± 0.04 43rd percentile | 0.67 | 0.68 ± 0.06 59th percentile | 0.67 |
| Submission attempts /15 min | 1.01 ± 1.02 98th percentile | 0.64 | 0.57 ± 0.18 48th percentile | 0.64 |
Nothing to tabulate for this view.
Nothing to tabulate for this view.