48%
vs
52%
Our win probability
Your pick
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How it ends
Knockout36.7%
Decision44.4%
Submission18.8%
What moves it most
Upset watch: the model still gives 48% to the underdog. Two fights in five at this price go the other way.
Limited data: at least one of these fighters has a thin or uncertain record, so treat this prediction with caution.
- difference in rating certainty — no side — this is how certain the ratings are, not who is better (value +1.91)
- UFC experience — moves the model toward Quentin Pasley (value -2.30)
- rating difference — moves the model toward Junior Tafa (value -1.19)
Tale of the tape
| Quentin Pasley | Junior Tafa | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 3-6 |
| Last fight | no earlier UFC fight | lost vs Iwo Baraniewski (KO/TKO, 2026-06-06) |
| Country | unknown | New Zealand |
| Height | unknown | 75" |
| Reach | unknown | 75" |
| Age | unknown | 30.2 |
| Stance | unknown | Orthodox |
| Weight class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Our rank | unrated | #36 |
| Style label | unknown | balanced |