42%
vs
58%
Our win probability
How it ends
Knockout23.1%
Decision65.5%
Submission11.3%
What moves it most
Upset watch: the model still gives 42% to the underdog. Two fights in five at this price go the other way.
- distance striking against distance defence — moves the model toward Carli Judice (value -0.37)
- output against strikes absorbed — moves the model toward Maycee Barber (value -0.81)
- UFC experience — moves the model toward Carli Judice (value +0.85)
Tale of the tape
| Maycee Barber | Carli Judice | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 10-3 | 4-1 |
| Last fight | lost vs Alexa Grasso (KO/TKO, 2026-03-28) | won vs Jeisla Chaves (KO/TKO, 2026-08-22) |
| Country | U.S. | unknown |
| Height | 65" | 67" |
| Reach | 65" | 68" |
| Age | 28.6 | 27.8 |
| Stance | Switch | Southpaw |
| Weight class | Women's Flyweight | Women's Flyweight |
| Our rank | #9 | #8 |
| Style label | balanced | volume striker |
Style profile
Percentile within the division · the dashed ring is average · outward is always better
Tap a metric to hide or show it — three is the minimum.
Tale of the tape
Division percentile. The hover carries the raw numbers.
Maycee Barber
Carli Judice
The numbers behind it
Rates are per 15 minutes of fight time, adjusted for the quality of
what the opponent usually allows. Defence and accuracy figures are percentages. A wider ±
means fewer rounds of evidence, and on the chart it is the whisker along that axis.
| Metric | Maycee Barber | Division | Carli Judice | Division |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strikes landed /15 min | 56.1 ± 8.4 61st percentile | 52.8 | 65.5 ± 49.7 95th percentile | 52.8 |
| Strike avoidance absorbed /15 min | 52.8 ± 13.3 70th percentile | 58.2 | 59.5 ± 5.9 36th percentile | 58.2 |
| Takedown attempts /15 min | 3.65 ± 0.66 33rd percentile | 3.91 | 3.36 ± 2.16 20th percentile | 3.91 |
| Takedown defence % | 51 ± 11 11th percentile | 54 | 60 ± 23 73rd percentile | 54 |
| Control time s /15 min | 213 ± 35 64th percentile | 199 | 176 ± 92 5th percentile | 199 |
| Striking defence % | 54 ± 1 48th percentile | 54 | 56 ± 8 73rd percentile | 54 |
| Knockdowns /15 min | 0.67 ± 0.01 39th percentile | 0.67 | 0.86 ± 0.78 98th percentile | 0.67 |
| Submission attempts /15 min | 0.32 ± 0.27 17th percentile | 0.43 | 0.34 ± 0.34 27th percentile | 0.43 |
Nothing to tabulate for this view.
Nothing to tabulate for this view.