58%
vs
42%
Our win probability
Your pick
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How it ends
Knockout24.7%
Decision60.3%
Submission15.0%
What moves it most
Upset watch: the model still gives 42% to the underdog. Two fights in five at this price go the other way.
Limited data: at least one of these fighters has a thin or uncertain record, so treat this prediction with caution.
- distance striking against distance defence — moves the model toward Jacqueline Cavalcanti (value +0.40)
- control time against control conceded — moves the model toward Michelle Montague (value -2.02)
- age difference — moves the model toward Jacqueline Cavalcanti (value -0.38)
Tale of the tape
| Jacqueline Cavalcanti | Michelle Montague | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 5-1 | 2-0 |
| Last fight | lost vs Ketlen Vieira (Decision - Unanimous, 2026-05-16) | won vs Mayra Bueno Silva (Decision - Unanimous, 2026-04-25) |
| Country | Brazil | unknown |
| Height | 68" | 69" |
| Reach | 70" | 68" |
| Age | 29.3 | 33.0 |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Weight class | Women's Bantamweight | Women's Bantamweight |
| Our rank | #7 | #5 |
| Style label | volume striker | grappler |
Style profile
Percentile within the division · the dashed ring is average · outward is always better
Tap a metric to hide or show it — three is the minimum.
Tale of the tape
Division percentile. The hover carries the raw numbers.
Jacqueline Cavalcanti
Michelle Montague
The numbers behind it
Rates are per 15 minutes of fight time, adjusted for the quality of
what the opponent usually allows. Defence and accuracy figures are percentages. A wider ±
means fewer rounds of evidence, and on the chart it is the whisker along that axis.
| Metric | Jacqueline Cavalcanti | Division | Michelle Montague | Division |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strikes landed /15 min | 57.3 ± 10.8 90th percentile | 52.2 | 50.2 ± 10.4 10th percentile | 52.2 |
| Strike avoidance absorbed /15 min | 55.7 ± 12.3 66th percentile | 61.5 | 57.3 ± 21.2 54th percentile | 61.5 |
| Takedown attempts /15 min | 2.65 ± 2.32 2nd percentile | 3.74 | 4.18 ± 2.20 82nd percentile | 3.74 |
| Control time s /15 min | 155 ± 156 2nd percentile | 228 | 275 ± 236 94th percentile | 228 |
| Striking defence % | 56 ± 8 94th percentile | 52 | 51 ± 9 18th percentile | 52 |
| Knockdowns /15 min | 0.71 ± 0.06 14th percentile | 0.74 | 0.73 ± 0.05 38th percentile | 0.74 |
| Submission attempts /15 min | 0.26 ± 0.26 6th percentile | 0.37 | 0.31 ± 0.31 38th percentile | 0.37 |
Nothing to tabulate for this view.
Nothing to tabulate for this view.