Sergei Pavlovich
66%
vs
34%
Our win probability
Alex Pereira
Your pick
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How it ends
Knockout34.4%
Decision51.5%
Submission14.1%
What moves it most
- age difference — moves the model toward Sergei Pavlovich (value -0.49)
- rating difference — moves the model toward Alex Pereira (value -0.74)
- control time against control conceded — moves the model toward Sergei Pavlovich (value +0.84)
Tale of the tape
| Sergei Pavlovich | Alex Pereira | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 9-3 | 10-3 |
| Last fight | won vs Tallison Teixeira (KO/TKO, 2026-05-30) | lost vs Ciryl Gane (KO/TKO, 2026-06-14) |
| Country | Russia | Brazil |
| Height | 75" | 76" |
| Reach | 84" | 79" |
| Age | 34.6 | 39.4 |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Weight class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Our rank | #4 | #1 |
| Style label | power puncher | power puncher |
Style profile
Percentile within the division · the dashed ring is average · outward is always better
Tap a metric to hide or show it — three is the minimum.
Tale of the tape
Division percentile. The hover carries the raw numbers.
Sergei Pavlovich
Alex Pereira
The numbers behind it
Rates are per 15 minutes of fight time, adjusted for the quality of
what the opponent usually allows. Defence and accuracy figures are percentages. A wider ±
means fewer rounds of evidence, and on the chart it is the whisker along that axis.
| Metric | Sergei Pavlovich | Division | Alex Pereira | Division |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strikes landed /15 min | 54.0 ± 16.7 76th percentile | 49.5 | 57.4 ± 14.9 91st percentile | 49.5 |
| Strike avoidance absorbed /15 min | 55.2 ± 6.7 64th percentile | 57.0 | 57.6 ± 2.6 44th percentile | 57.0 |
| Takedown attempts /15 min | 3.56 ± 1.36 32nd percentile | 3.93 | 2.65 ± 2.36 5th percentile | 3.93 |
| Takedown defence % | 56 ± 35 41st percentile | 56 | 64 ± 21 86th percentile | 56 |
| Control time s /15 min | 197 ± 22 26th percentile | 202 | 181 ± 40 7th percentile | 202 |
| Striking defence % | 50 ± 10 85th percentile | 47 | 49 ± 3 76th percentile | 47 |
| Knockdowns /15 min | 0.89 ± 1.02 99th percentile | 0.63 | 0.81 ± 0.35 91st percentile | 0.63 |
| Submission attempts /15 min | 0.54 ± 0.54 22nd percentile | 0.69 | 0.52 ± 0.33 15th percentile | 0.69 |
| Metric | Sergei Pavlovich | Division | Alex Pereira | Division |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strikes landed /15 min | 70.3 ± 58.0 77th percentile | 69.5 | 72.8 ± 8.7 90th percentile | 69.5 |
| Strike avoidance absorbed /15 min | 79.4 ± 6.7 30th percentile | 79.3 | 73.5 ± 13.4 83rd percentile | 79.3 |
| Takedown attempts /15 min | 3.74 ± 3.74 43rd percentile | 3.79 | 2.75 ± 2.39 3rd percentile | 3.79 |
| Takedown defence % | 78 ± 22 55th percentile | 78 | 81 ± 10 95th percentile | 78 |
| Control time s /15 min | 174 ± 6 63rd percentile | 174 | 166 ± 20 10th percentile | 174 |
| Striking defence % | 48 ± 13 57th percentile | 48 | 49 ± 3 90th percentile | 48 |
| Knockdowns /15 min | 1.43 ± 1.80 83rd percentile | 1.40 | 1.44 ± 0.13 90th percentile | 1.40 |
| Submission attempts /15 min | 0.32 ± 0.32 57th percentile | 0.32 | 0.26 ± 0.14 10th percentile | 0.32 |
| Metric | Sergei Pavlovich | Division | Alex Pereira | Division |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strikes landed /15 min | — | — | 63.0 ± 39.2 94th percentile | 59.3 |
| Strike avoidance absorbed /15 min | — | — | 55.2 ± 2.0 31st percentile | 55.0 |
| Takedown attempts /15 min | — | — | 4.37 ± 4.37 6th percentile | 4.78 |
| Takedown defence % | — | — | 67 ± 33 86th percentile | 64 |
| Control time s /15 min | — | — | 192 ± 17 44th percentile | 193 |
| Striking defence % | — | — | 50 ± 5 6th percentile | 50 |
| Knockdowns /15 min | — | — | 0.41 ± 0.44 94th percentile | 0.37 |
| Submission attempts /15 min | — | — | 0.13 ± 0.13 6th percentile | 0.14 |