58%
vs
42%
Our win probability
Your pick
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How it ends
Knockout32.5%
Decision51.3%
Submission16.2%
What moves it most
Upset watch: the model still gives 42% to the underdog. Two fights in five at this price go the other way.
Limited data: at least one of these fighters has a thin or uncertain record, so treat this prediction with caution.
- rating difference — moves the model toward Roque Conceição Moreira Jr. (value +1.18)
- difference in rating certainty — no side — this is how certain the ratings are, not who is better (value +0.59)
- UFC experience — moves the model toward Roque Conceição Moreira Jr. (value -0.69)
Tale of the tape
| Roque Conceição Moreira Jr. | Nilson Rojas | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last fight | no earlier UFC fight | lost vs Bilal Hasan (KO/TKO, 2026-08-29) |
| Country | unknown | unknown |
| Height | unknown | unknown |
| Reach | unknown | unknown |
| Age | 27.1 | 27.6 |
| Stance | Orthodox | unknown |
| Weight class | Flyweight | Flyweight |
| Our rank | unrated | #40 |
| Style label | unknown | balanced |