Yair Rodriguez
32%
vs
68%
Our win probability
Steve Garcia
Your pick
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How it ends
Knockout33.9%
Decision51.0%
Submission15.1%
What moves it most
- returning from a year or more out — moves the model toward Steve Garcia (value +1.00)
- distance striking against distance defence — moves the model toward Steve Garcia (value -0.10)
- reach difference — moves the model toward Steve Garcia (value -0.80)
Tale of the tape
| Yair Rodriguez | Steve Garcia | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 11-4 (1 NC) | 8-3 |
| Last fight | won vs Patricio Freire (Decision - Unanimous, 2025-04-12) | lost vs Diego Lopes (KO/TKO, 2026-06-14) |
| Country | Mexico | U.S |
| Height | 71" | 72" |
| Reach | 71" | 75" |
| Age | 34.2 | 34.6 |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Weight class | Featherweight | Featherweight |
| Our rank | #19 | #13 |
| Style label | balanced | power puncher |
Style profile
Percentile within the division · the dashed ring is average · outward is always better
Tap a metric to hide or show it — three is the minimum.
Tale of the tape
Division percentile. The hover carries the raw numbers.
Yair Rodriguez
Steve Garcia
The numbers behind it
Rates are per 15 minutes of fight time, adjusted for the quality of
what the opponent usually allows. Defence and accuracy figures are percentages. A wider ±
means fewer rounds of evidence, and on the chart it is the whisker along that axis.
| Metric | Yair Rodriguez | Division | Steve Garcia | Division |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strikes landed /15 min | 52.5 ± 6.5 60th percentile | 50.3 | 55.0 ± 17.4 85th percentile | 50.3 |
| Strike avoidance absorbed /15 min | 59.7 ± 3.6 57th percentile | 60.6 | 54.2 ± 23.5 92nd percentile | 60.6 |
| Takedown attempts /15 min | 3.91 ± 2.31 12th percentile | 4.70 | 3.88 ± 3.01 11th percentile | 4.70 |
| Takedown defence % | 56 ± 2 44th percentile | 56 | 59 ± 30 68th percentile | 56 |
| Control time s /15 min | 189 ± 24 29th percentile | 197 | 189 ± 32 28th percentile | 197 |
| Striking defence % | 53 ± 1 47th percentile | 53 | 55 ± 9 94th percentile | 53 |
| Knockdowns /15 min | 0.71 ± 0.19 82nd percentile | 0.65 | 0.99 ± 1.26 99th percentile | 0.65 |
| Submission attempts /15 min | 0.46 ± 0.21 33rd percentile | 0.53 | 0.47 ± 0.20 46th percentile | 0.53 |
| Metric | Yair Rodriguez | Division | Steve Garcia | Division |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strikes landed /15 min | 63.9 ± 5.2 76th percentile | 62.8 | 62.8 ± 1.2 60th percentile | 62.8 |
| Strike avoidance absorbed /15 min | 62.3 ± 11.6 24th percentile | 59.8 | 58.6 ± 50.2 60th percentile | 59.8 |
| Takedown attempts /15 min | 2.17 ± 0.69 24th percentile | 2.32 | 2.27 ± 2.27 53rd percentile | 2.32 |
| Control time s /15 min | 176 ± 44 8th percentile | 186 | 186 ± 6 47th percentile | 186 |
| Striking defence % | 54 ± 4 29th percentile | 55 | 56 ± 32 82nd percentile | 55 |
| Knockdowns /15 min | 1.47 ± 0.29 55th percentile | 1.53 | 1.52 ± 0.35 84th percentile | 1.53 |
| Submission attempts /15 min | 0.19 ± 0.04 71st percentile | 0.18 | 0.18 ± 0.18 63rd percentile | 0.18 |
| Metric | Yair Rodriguez | Division | Steve Garcia | Division |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strikes landed /15 min | 56.3 ± 15.8 65th percentile | 55.7 | — | — |
| Strike avoidance absorbed /15 min | 75.2 ± 38.4 27th percentile | 73.8 | — | — |
| Takedown attempts /15 min | 3.68 ± 1.95 50th percentile | 3.75 | — | — |
| Takedown defence % | 54 ± 54 21st percentile | 55 | — | — |
| Control time s /15 min | 179 ± 67 35th percentile | 181 | — | — |
| Striking defence % | 51 ± 0 50th percentile | 51 | — | — |
| Knockdowns /15 min | 0.32 ± 0.29 88th percentile | 0.31 | — | — |
| Submission attempts /15 min | 0.06 ± 0.06 73rd percentile | 0.07 | — | — |