Carlos Prates
35%
vs
65%
Our win probability
Michael Morales
Your pick
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How it ends
Knockout54.1%
Decision34.9%
Submission11.0%
What moves it most
- age difference — moves the model toward Michael Morales (value +0.59)
- rating difference — moves the model toward Michael Morales (value -0.88)
- knockdown rate against durability — moves the model toward Carlos Prates (value +0.53)
Tale of the tape
| Carlos Prates | Michael Morales | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 7-1 | 7-0 |
| Last fight | won vs Jack Della Maddalena (KO/TKO, 2026-05-02) | won vs Sean Brady (KO/TKO, 2025-11-15) |
| Country | Brazil | Ecuador |
| Height | 73" | 72" |
| Reach | 78" | 79" |
| Age | 33.5 | 27.6 |
| Stance | Switch | Orthodox |
| Weight class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Our rank | #3 | #1 |
| Style label | power puncher | power puncher |
Style profile
Percentile within the division · the dashed ring is average · outward is always better
Tap a metric to hide or show it — three is the minimum.
Tale of the tape
Division percentile. The hover carries the raw numbers.
Carlos Prates
Michael Morales
The numbers behind it
Rates are per 15 minutes of fight time, adjusted for the quality of
what the opponent usually allows. Defence and accuracy figures are percentages. A wider ±
means fewer rounds of evidence, and on the chart it is the whisker along that axis.
| Metric | Carlos Prates | Division | Michael Morales | Division |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strikes landed /15 min | 56.6 ± 20.0 84th percentile | 48.2 | 57.2 ± 43.7 89th percentile | 48.2 |
| Strike avoidance absorbed /15 min | 56.8 ± 6.4 25th percentile | 54.3 | 52.6 ± 8.2 66th percentile | 54.3 |
| Takedown attempts /15 min | 3.01 ± 2.84 5th percentile | 4.21 | 3.66 ± 2.68 28th percentile | 4.21 |
| Takedown defence % | 63 ± 13 76th percentile | 58 | 64 ± 29 87th percentile | 58 |
| Control time s /15 min | 145 ± 105 1st percentile | 189 | 183 ± 31 29th percentile | 189 |
| Striking defence % | 50 ± 4 9th percentile | 52 | 53 ± 6 74th percentile | 52 |
| Knockdowns /15 min | 1.25 ± 1.36 99th percentile | 0.68 | 0.97 ± 1.43 96th percentile | 0.68 |
| Submission attempts /15 min | 0.35 ± 0.35 14th percentile | 0.49 | 0.41 ± 0.41 32nd percentile | 0.49 |
| Metric | Carlos Prates | Division | Michael Morales | Division |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strikes landed /15 min | 74.6 ± 17.9 94th percentile | 70.1 | 71.1 ± 53.0 82nd percentile | 70.1 |
| Strike avoidance absorbed /15 min | 64.3 ± 4.2 54th percentile | 65.3 | 64.4 ± 43.8 50th percentile | 65.3 |
| Takedown attempts /15 min | 1.75 ± 1.57 10th percentile | 2.15 | 2.11 ± 2.11 46th percentile | 2.15 |
| Takedown defence % | 67 ± 7 60th percentile | 65 | 65 ± 15 50th percentile | 65 |
| Control time s /15 min | 135 ± 136 2nd percentile | 170 | 168 ± 85 42nd percentile | 170 |
| Striking defence % | 52 ± 4 18th percentile | 53 | 53 ± 19 82nd percentile | 53 |
| Knockdowns /15 min | 1.68 ± 0.72 98th percentile | 1.50 | 1.63 ± 6.54 90th percentile | 1.50 |
| Submission attempts /15 min | 0.08 ± 0.08 10th percentile | 0.10 | 0.10 ± 0.10 50th percentile | 0.10 |
| Metric | Carlos Prates | Division | Michael Morales | Division |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strikes landed /15 min | 67.7 ± 21.6 88th percentile | 66.5 | — | — |
| Strike avoidance absorbed /15 min | 58.3 ± 18.3 22nd percentile | 57.3 | — | — |
| Takedown attempts /15 min | 2.83 ± 2.83 22nd percentile | 2.98 | — | — |
| Takedown defence % | 68 ± 16 62nd percentile | 68 | — | — |
| Control time s /15 min | 190 ± 190 2nd percentile | 200 | — | — |
| Striking defence % | 52 ± 13 22nd percentile | 52 | — | — |
| Knockdowns /15 min | 0.73 ± 0.43 58th percentile | 0.75 | — | — |
| Submission attempts /15 min | 0.22 ± 0.22 32nd percentile | 0.23 | — | — |