Joshua Van
53%
vs
47%
Our win probability
Manel Kape
Your pick
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How it ends
Knockout37.6%
Decision55.0%
Submission7.4%
What moves it most
Upset watch: the model still gives 47% to the underdog. Two fights in five at this price go the other way.
- output against strikes absorbed — moves the model toward Manel Kape (value +1.79)
- distance striking against distance defence — moves the model toward Joshua Van (value +0.41)
- age difference — moves the model toward Joshua Van (value -0.79)
Tale of the tape
| Joshua Van | Manel Kape | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 11-1 | 8-3 |
| Last fight | won vs Alexandre Pantoja (Decision - Unanimous, 2026-09-19) | won vs Kyoji Horiguchi (KO/TKO, 2026-06-20) |
| Country | Myanmar | Angola |
| Height | 65" | 65" |
| Reach | 65" | 68" |
| Age | 25.3 | 33.2 |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Weight class | Flyweight | Flyweight |
| Our rank | #1 C | #1 |
| Style label | volume striker | power puncher |
Style profile
Percentile within the division · the dashed ring is average · outward is always better
Tap a metric to hide or show it — three is the minimum.
Tale of the tape
Division percentile. The hover carries the raw numbers.
Joshua Van
Manel Kape
The numbers behind it
Rates are per 15 minutes of fight time, adjusted for the quality of
what the opponent usually allows. Defence and accuracy figures are percentages. A wider ±
means fewer rounds of evidence, and on the chart it is the whisker along that axis.
| Metric | Joshua Van | Division | Manel Kape | Division |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strikes landed /15 min | 81.0 ± 32.0 99th percentile | 51.5 | 60.8 ± 19.8 94th percentile | 51.5 |
| Strike avoidance absorbed /15 min | 69.0 ± 18.2 1st percentile | 53.2 | 53.5 ± 2.4 50th percentile | 53.2 |
| Takedown attempts /15 min | 2.97 ± 2.04 1st percentile | 4.86 | 3.56 ± 2.77 4th percentile | 4.86 |
| Takedown defence % | 68 ± 10 96th percentile | 59 | 65 ± 13 78th percentile | 59 |
| Control time s /15 min | 174 ± 28 13th percentile | 197 | 169 ± 61 6th percentile | 197 |
| Striking defence % | 56 ± 1 77th percentile | 55 | 54 ± 1 48th percentile | 55 |
| Knockdowns /15 min | 0.88 ± 0.28 96th percentile | 0.63 | 0.86 ± 0.50 94th percentile | 0.63 |
| Submission attempts /15 min | 0.45 ± 0.12 18th percentile | 0.54 | 0.42 ± 0.25 11th percentile | 0.54 |
| Metric | Joshua Van | Division | Manel Kape | Division |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strikes landed /15 min | 68.5 ± 18.0 96th percentile | 62.0 | 62.7 ± 3.7 68th percentile | 62.0 |
| Strike avoidance absorbed /15 min | 58.1 ± 10.1 18th percentile | 54.8 | 53.0 ± 9.8 82nd percentile | 54.8 |
| Takedown attempts /15 min | 3.03 ± 2.62 4th percentile | 3.98 | 3.46 ± 2.85 18th percentile | 3.98 |
| Takedown defence % | 62 ± 6 54th percentile | 60 | 62 ± 14 61st percentile | 60 |
| Control time s /15 min | 186 ± 14 75th percentile | 182 | 174 ± 44 25th percentile | 182 |
| Striking defence % | 53 ± 2 68th percentile | 53 | 52 ± 4 25th percentile | 53 |
| Knockdowns /15 min | 1.30 ± 0.42 96th percentile | 1.15 | 1.23 ± 0.51 89th percentile | 1.15 |
| Submission attempts /15 min | 0.46 ± 0.48 96th percentile | 0.29 | 0.25 ± 0.25 25th percentile | 0.29 |
| Metric | Joshua Van | Division | Manel Kape | Division |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strikes landed /15 min | 58.2 ± 16.0 86th percentile | 56.2 | — | — |
| Strike avoidance absorbed /15 min | 58.1 ± 8.1 41st percentile | 57.1 | — | — |
| Takedown attempts /15 min | 3.71 ± 3.71 4th percentile | 4.18 | — | — |
| Takedown defence % | 65 ± 13 86th percentile | 63 | — | — |
| Control time s /15 min | 185 ± 14 68th percentile | 183 | — | — |
| Striking defence % | 50 ± 2 68th percentile | 49 | — | — |
| Knockdowns /15 min | 0.34 ± 0.51 96th percentile | 0.28 | — | — |
| Submission attempts /15 min | 0.30 ± 0.65 86th percentile | 0.22 | — | — |