47%
vs
53%
Our win probability
Robert Whittaker
Your pick
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How it ends
Knockout36.5%
Decision47.5%
Submission16.0%
What moves it most
Upset watch: the model still gives 47% to the underdog. Two fights in five at this price go the other way.
- distance striking against distance defence — moves the model toward Robert Whittaker (value -0.23)
- rating difference — moves the model toward Robert Whittaker (value -1.23)
- UFC experience — moves the model toward Bogdan Guskov (value -1.14)
Tale of the tape
| Bogdan Guskov | Robert Whittaker | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-2-1 | 18-7 |
| Last fight | lost vs Magomed Ankalaev (KO/TKO, 2026-07-25) | won vs Nikita Krylov (KO/TKO, 2026-07-11) |
| Country | Uzbekistan | New Zealand |
| Height | 75" | 72" |
| Reach | 76" | 73" |
| Age | 34.4 | 36.1 |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Weight class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Our rank | #13 | #3 |
| Style label | balanced | power puncher |
Style profile
Percentile within the division · the dashed ring is average · outward is always better
Tap a metric to hide or show it — three is the minimum.
Tale of the tape
Division percentile. The hover carries the raw numbers.
Bogdan Guskov
Robert Whittaker
The numbers behind it
Rates are per 15 minutes of fight time, adjusted for the quality of
what the opponent usually allows. Defence and accuracy figures are percentages. A wider ±
means fewer rounds of evidence, and on the chart it is the whisker along that axis.
| Metric | Bogdan Guskov | Division | Robert Whittaker | Division |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strikes landed /15 min | 50.8 ± 7.2 57th percentile | 48.0 | 54.1 ± 10.0 86th percentile | 48.0 |
| Strike avoidance absorbed /15 min | 55.4 ± 4.8 66th percentile | 57.0 | 54.7 ± 4.1 70th percentile | 57.0 |
| Takedown attempts /15 min | 3.21 ± 3.21 6th percentile | 4.50 | 3.48 ± 1.66 14th percentile | 4.50 |
| Takedown defence % | 53 ± 9 14th percentile | 56 | 61 ± 12 76th percentile | 56 |
| Control time s /15 min | 201 ± 14 63rd percentile | 196 | 174 ± 36 6th percentile | 196 |
| Striking defence % | 49 ± 2 28th percentile | 50 | 52 ± 3 86th percentile | 50 |
| Knockdowns /15 min | 0.80 ± 0.43 86th percentile | 0.63 | 0.70 ± 0.14 61st percentile | 0.63 |
| Submission attempts /15 min | 0.74 ± 0.13 79th percentile | 0.77 | 0.47 ± 0.47 1st percentile | 0.77 |
| Metric | Bogdan Guskov | Division | Robert Whittaker | Division |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strikes landed /15 min | 59.6 ± 10.6 18th percentile | 61.3 | 63.2 ± 5.5 82nd percentile | 61.3 |
| Strike avoidance absorbed /15 min | 56.3 ± 20.8 75th percentile | 59.9 | 54.7 ± 14.7 82nd percentile | 59.9 |
| Takedown attempts /15 min | 1.29 ± 1.29 18th percentile | 1.51 | 1.77 ± 0.78 82nd percentile | 1.51 |
| Takedown defence % | 60 ± 11 21st percentile | 62 | 66 ± 15 88th percentile | 62 |
| Control time s /15 min | 187 ± 14 54th percentile | 187 | 161 ± 74 4th percentile | 187 |
| Striking defence % | 46 ± 7 75th percentile | 46 | 48 ± 7 96th percentile | 46 |
| Knockdowns /15 min | 1.15 ± 0.10 61st percentile | 1.16 | 1.17 ± 0.05 89th percentile | 1.16 |
| Submission attempts /15 min | 0.25 ± 0.42 89th percentile | 0.17 | 0.13 ± 0.13 4th percentile | 0.17 |
| Metric | Bogdan Guskov | Division | Robert Whittaker | Division |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strikes landed /15 min | 54.9 ± 6.3 32nd percentile | 55.2 | 56.2 ± 7.9 96th percentile | 55.2 |
| Strike avoidance absorbed /15 min | 53.7 ± 42.0 77th percentile | 56.1 | 54.0 ± 17.0 68th percentile | 56.1 |
| Takedown attempts /15 min | 2.30 ± 2.30 32nd percentile | 2.43 | 2.67 ± 1.86 77th percentile | 2.43 |
| Takedown defence % | 47 ± 47 6th percentile | 50 | 53 ± 36 94th percentile | 50 |
| Control time s /15 min | 223 ± 19 41st percentile | 224 | 209 ± 118 4th percentile | 224 |
| Striking defence % | 47 ± 3 41st percentile | 47 | 48 ± 5 77th percentile | 47 |
| Knockdowns /15 min | 0.23 ± 0.07 68th percentile | 0.23 | 0.22 ± 0.05 23rd percentile | 0.23 |
| Submission attempts /15 min | 0.59 ± 1.36 86th percentile | 0.51 | 0.46 ± 0.46 4th percentile | 0.51 |