Karine Silva is the pick at 69.1% against Gabriella Fernandes's 30.9%, and the rating difference of 1674 to 1431 is the largest factor by some margin. The second is the volume comparison: Silva absorbs 52.2 significant strikes per 15 minutes against Fernandes's 64.7, where the women's flyweight average is 58.8. Fernandes holds the distance-striking edge, landing 42.8 strikes per 15 minutes at range against Silva's 37.4 and the 41.2 division average. Silva has lost three of her last five, all by unanimous decision, so this is a confident pick on a fighter in poor form — the confidence comes from the rating gap and from Fernandes being hit a great deal. Both are the same age, 32.9 and 33.2, so age is not a factor here. Neither has wide uncertainty, so this is one of the better-evidenced predictions on the card.

Silva is a grappler whose defensive numbers are her best asset. She absorbs 52.2 significant strikes per 15 minutes against the 58.8 division average and concedes only 0.14 knockdowns per 15 minutes against a 0.21 norm, with a 54% striking defence at the division figure. She attempts 3.7 takedowns per 15 minutes at 42% accuracy, above the 38% average, holds 205.9 seconds of control against 198.0, and her 0.70 submission attempts and 0.26 reversals per 15 minutes are both well above the 0.42 and 0.20 averages. Her weaker side is her takedown defence at 47% against a 54% average, and her output: 47.3 significant strikes landed per 15 minutes against a 52.6 average, with only 6.1 ground strikes against 5.3 — she controls more than she damages. Fernandes is the busier striker and the more porous fighter. She lands 52.7 significant strikes per 15 minutes at the division's 52.6 and 42.8 of them at distance against a 41.2 average, with a 1.27 pace ratio at the division norm. But she absorbs 64.7 per 15 minutes against a 58.8 average, the worst figure in this fight by 12.6 strikes, and her clinch and ground output of 5.6 and 4.0 strikes per 15 minutes are both below the 6.3 and 5.3 averages. Her 59% takedown defence is above the 54% norm and above Silva's 47%, and her 0.38 submission attempts per 15 minutes are below the 0.42 average. Her last five are three wins and two losses, the most recent a first-round knockout by Casey O'Neill. The matchup is Silva's grappling against Fernandes's volume, and the numbers say the exchange favours Silva on the exchange rate rather than the output. Fernandes will land more at distance, but she absorbs 64.7 strikes per 15 minutes against an opponent who concedes 52.2, so a striking fight is not obviously hers; and her best defensive number, 59% takedown defence against Silva's 3.7 attempts per 15 minutes, is the one thing standing between this and a grappling match. Silva's 0.70 submission attempts and 0.26 reversals say that once it is on the mat she is the more dangerous and the harder to hold. The caution is form: Silva has lost three of five and all her recent fights, win or lose, have gone to the judges, which fits the model's 55.3% chance of a decision. A reader should weigh that the 243-point rating gap was earned before that run.