Mantas Kondratavicius is the pick at 56.2% against Andre Petroski's 43.8%, and that margin rests almost entirely on age and inexperience rather than on anything either man does in a fight. Kondratavicius is 27 and Petroski 35, and the model reads the eight years as its largest single factor here. Their ratings are 1785 and 1780 — a five-point gap — but Kondratavicius carries 298 points of uncertainty against Petroski's 145, because he has one UFC bout on record. The styles are close to indistinguishable on the tape: both sit within two strikes per 15 minutes of the middleweight average and both attempt about four takedowns per 15 minutes. This is a 50.6% chance of a decision and the thinnest read on the card — one fight is not a style profile, and the number should be read loosely.

Kondratavicius has a single UFC appearance, a unanimous decision over Antonio Trocoli in March 2026, and the profile below is built on it. Every metric sits close to the middleweight average: 49.5 significant strikes landed per 15 minutes against 49.0, 4.0 takedown attempts against 4.1, 207 seconds of control against 196. The uncertainties say the rest — plus or minus 33.1 on strikes absorbed, plus or minus 105 on control time — which is another way of saying we do not know what he does. He is 27 and has been out 7.4 months. Petroski is measured and the measurements are unflattering. He is a wrestler who grinds: 4.2 takedown attempts and 225 seconds of control per 15 minutes against the division's 4.1 and 196, with takedown defence of 60.5% against 53.0%, and he concedes only 172 seconds of control against the division's 233. His striking is ordinary and safe — 47.9 landed, 51.9 absorbed, 50.1% defence, all within two points of average — and he finishes rarely, with a 7.4% KO rate and 6.3% submission rate. He has lost three of his last five, two of them by knockout inside two rounds, and he is 35 with 5.6 months off. On the numbers this is a grappling match between two men who want the same thing and are equally equipped to get it, which is why the model lands on a decision at 50.6% and a knockout at only 30.2%. Petroski's 225 seconds of control per 15 minutes is the clearest single edge anyone has in this fight, and if he gets to it the fight looks like his last win over Rodolfo Vieira. The counter is that Kondratavicius concedes 240 seconds of control per 15 minutes but also attempts 0.76 submissions, both from one fight, so neither number carries weight. Be plain about what the 55.5% is: a 27-year-old with one fight against a 35-year-old with a measured record and a three-in-five losing run. If Petroski's wrestling still works, the model is on the wrong side of this.