Mitch Raposo is the pick at 56.7% against Marcos Degli's 43.3%, and as with the heavyweight prelim the margin is thin because Degli has no record here — no bouts, no style profile, no reach. Raposo is rated 1546 with 202 points of uncertainty, which is itself wide, so the model is putting a lightly measured flyweight against an unmeasured one. What Raposo does is clear enough: 5.1 takedown attempts per 15 minutes against a flyweight average of 4.8, striking defence of 56.9% against 55.0%, and every one of his last four fights went to the judges, three of them split. A 52.1% chance of a decision follows from that, and the pick should be read loosely.

Raposo is a volume-neutral flyweight who wins and loses narrowly. He lands 49.7 significant strikes per 15 minutes against the division's 52.0 at 42.2% accuracy against 42.0%, so his striking is average at best, and 42.2 of those come at distance. Where he is slightly above the division is in defence and grappling volume: 56.9% striking defence against 55.0%, 65.1% takedown defence against 59.0%, 5.1 takedown attempts against 4.8, and 0.44 knockdowns absorbed per 15 minutes against 0.48. He almost never finishes — a 4.7% KO rate and 4.1% submission rate against division averages of 6.0% each — and his four recorded fights are two split-decision wins, one split loss and one more split loss. He is 28 and has been out 4.4 months. Marcos Degli has no fight in this database: no rating, no style profile, no reach, no stance. He was born in May 2000, making him 26 on fight night. Nothing else about him is known here, and nothing in the paragraph above is about him. So there is no matchup to describe, only a shape. Raposo's own record says he contests close rounds and does not end fights, which is where the 53.1% decision probability and the 30.0% knockout probability come from — both are close to the flyweight base rate rather than a read on an exchange. The thing worth noticing is that the 56.7% is barely above a coin flip even though one fighter is rated and the other is not, which is the uncertainty term doing its job: Raposo's own 202-point deviation is wide enough that being the only measured man in the fight is not worth much. If Degli is a credible signing rather than a late call-up, the model has no way to know it and this number is close to meaningless.