Tatiana Suarez is the pick at 54.9% against Virna Jandiroba's 45.1%, and the rating difference is the largest factor: 1974.3 against 1848.2. This is a 64.0% chance of going to the judges, the highest on the card, because both women grapple and neither finishes often. Jandiroba actually holds the distance-striking edge, landing 36.6 strikes per 15 minutes at distance against Suarez's 35.1 with a better 53.8% striking defence against 48.7%. Suarez is 35.9 and Jandiroba 38.4, and that age gap is the third factor, favouring Suarez. Jandiroba's 0.72 submission attempts and 0.28 reversals per 15 minutes are both roughly double Suarez's, so the grappling is not one-way. The margin here is narrow enough that the rating gap, not the styles, is doing the work.

Suarez attempts 5.3 takedowns per 15 minutes at 39.8% accuracy and holds 258.5 seconds of control, above the 196.2-second strawweight average, and she has finished three of her last five by submission. Her striking is her weaker side: 48.1 significant strikes landed per 15 minutes against a 52.4 average, 56.6 absorbed against 67.3, and a 48.7% striking defence that is below the 52% norm. Her pace ratio of 1.285 says her output rises in the later rounds. Her control figure carries an uncertainty of 172.0 seconds, so how much position she holds varies a great deal fight to fight. Jandiroba is the same archetype with the numbers tilted differently. She attempts 5.9 takedowns per 15 minutes at 40.7% and holds 287.6 seconds of control, the higher of the two, and she concedes only 160.0 seconds against — the best figure in this fight. Her 0.72 submission attempts per 15 minutes against a 0.35 division average and 0.28 reversals against 0.17 mark her as the more active grappler once the fight is on the mat. She lands 46.8 significant strikes per 15 minutes with 61.2% takedown defence, above Suarez's 57.1%, and her 1.456 pace ratio is the steepest late-round rise in this bout, though with an uncertainty of 0.332. Two wrestlers who both want the same thing usually produces a fight decided on who gets there first and who gets up. On the raw numbers Jandiroba is the better grappler by rate — more control, more submission attempts, more reversals, less control conceded — and the model still prefers Suarez, on a 126.1-point rating advantage built against Amanda Lemos, Jéssica Andrade and Loopy Godinez, with her only recent loss a decision to Zhang Weili over five rounds. That is the honest summary of the disagreement: the styles slightly favour Jandiroba and the record favours Suarez. The likeliest path is a scrappy, position-heavy fight in which neither clears the other, which is why the model gives it a 63.8% chance of reaching the scorecards and only 18.2% of ending in a submission despite both women's finishing history.