Dan Hooker
48%
vs
52%
Our win probability
Brian Ortega
Your pick
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How it ends
Knockout29.9%
Decision55.6%
Submission14.5%
What moves it most
Upset watch: the model still gives 48% to the underdog. Two fights in five at this price go the other way.
- rating difference — moves the model toward Brian Ortega (value -1.22)
- returning from a year or more out — moves the model toward Dan Hooker (value -1.00)
- reach difference — moves the model toward Dan Hooker (value +1.20)
Tale of the tape
| Dan Hooker | Brian Ortega | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 14-11 | 8-5 (1 NC) |
| Last fight | lost vs Salahdine Parnasse (KO/TKO, 2026-09-05) | lost vs Aljamain Sterling (Decision - Unanimous, 2025-08-23) |
| Country | New Zealand | U.S. |
| Height | 72" | 68" |
| Reach | 75" | 69" |
| Age | 36.8 | 35.7 |
| Stance | Switch | Switch |
| Weight class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Our rank | #33 | #15 |
| Style label | balanced | balanced |
Style profile
Percentile within the division · the dashed ring is average · outward is always better
Tap a metric to hide or show it — three is the minimum.
Tale of the tape
Division percentile. The hover carries the raw numbers.
Dan Hooker
Brian Ortega
The numbers behind it
Rates are per 15 minutes of fight time, adjusted for the quality of
what the opponent usually allows. Defence and accuracy figures are percentages. A wider ±
means fewer rounds of evidence, and on the chart it is the whisker along that axis.
| Metric | Dan Hooker | Division | Brian Ortega | Division |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strikes landed /15 min | 54.4 ± 14.2 86th percentile | 47.8 | 51.9 ± 3.9 71st percentile | 47.8 |
| Strike avoidance absorbed /15 min | 65.8 ± 15.9 12th percentile | 58.5 | 69.3 ± 21.3 6th percentile | 58.5 |
| Takedown attempts /15 min | 3.85 ± 1.85 11th percentile | 4.72 | 4.47 ± 0.64 36th percentile | 4.72 |
| Takedown defence % | 61 ± 16 83rd percentile | 54 | 53 ± 10 16th percentile | 54 |
| Control time s /15 min | 195 ± 9 49th percentile | 193 | 187 ± 26 24th percentile | 193 |
| Striking defence % | 50 ± 6 6th percentile | 53 | 51 ± 3 21st percentile | 53 |
| Knockdowns /15 min | 0.72 ± 0.14 70th percentile | 0.67 | 0.65 ± 0.03 36th percentile | 0.67 |
| Submission attempts /15 min | 0.79 ± 0.33 91st percentile | 0.64 | 0.52 ± 0.08 22nd percentile | 0.64 |
| Metric | Dan Hooker | Division | Brian Ortega | Division |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strikes landed /15 min | 63.4 ± 1.4 35th percentile | 63.6 | 61.6 ± 3.8 4th percentile | 63.6 |
| Strike avoidance absorbed /15 min | 64.2 ± 11.6 15th percentile | 62.5 | 66.5 ± 21.6 4th percentile | 62.5 |
| Takedown attempts /15 min | 3.55 ± 1.27 27th percentile | 3.73 | 2.81 ± 1.58 0th percentile | 3.73 |
| Takedown defence % | 64 ± 10 72nd percentile | 63 | 57 ± 3 5th percentile | 63 |
| Control time s /15 min | 168 ± 44 19th percentile | 174 | 177 ± 29 71st percentile | 174 |
| Striking defence % | 46 ± 10 19th percentile | 48 | 53 ± 6 100th percentile | 48 |
| Knockdowns /15 min | 1.32 ± 0.23 40th percentile | 1.36 | 1.42 ± 0.35 92nd percentile | 1.36 |
| Submission attempts /15 min | 0.56 ± 0.79 90th percentile | 0.45 | 0.27 ± 0.28 0th percentile | 0.45 |
| Metric | Dan Hooker | Division | Brian Ortega | Division |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strikes landed /15 min | 54.4 ± 18.1 27th percentile | 54.9 | 56.0 ± 2.7 85th percentile | 54.9 |
| Strike avoidance absorbed /15 min | 68.7 ± 4.7 35th percentile | 68.6 | 75.7 ± 19.1 0th percentile | 68.6 |
| Takedown attempts /15 min | 5.57 ± 6.28 73rd percentile | 5.40 | 3.89 ± 1.50 0th percentile | 5.40 |
| Takedown defence % | 59 ± 59 29th percentile | 60 | 54 ± 17 0th percentile | 60 |
| Control time s /15 min | 197 ± 30 65th percentile | 196 | 177 ± 41 0th percentile | 196 |
| Striking defence % | 45 ± 7 27th percentile | 45 | 50 ± 9 100th percentile | 45 |
| Knockdowns /15 min | 0.47 ± 0.17 58th percentile | 0.47 | 0.30 ± 0.05 0th percentile | 0.47 |
| Submission attempts /15 min | 0.06 ± 0.06 42nd percentile | 0.06 | 0.09 ± 0.22 92nd percentile | 0.06 |