Aljamain Sterling
43%
vs
57%
Our win probability
Your pick
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How it ends
Knockout29.6%
Decision53.2%
Submission17.3%
What moves it most
Upset watch: the model still gives 43% to the underdog. Two fights in five at this price go the other way.
- age difference — moves the model toward Kevin Vallejos (value +1.24)
- output against strikes absorbed — moves the model toward Aljamain Sterling (value -0.80)
- UFC experience — moves the model toward Kevin Vallejos (value +1.57)
Tale of the tape
| Aljamain Sterling | Kevin Vallejos | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 18-5 | 4-0 |
| Last fight | won vs Youssef Zalal (Decision - Unanimous, 2026-04-25) | won vs Josh Emmett (KO/TKO, 2026-03-14) |
| Country | U.S. | Argentina |
| Height | 67" | 67" |
| Reach | 71" | 68" |
| Age | 37.3 | 25.0 |
| Stance | Orthodox | Switch |
| Weight class | Featherweight | Featherweight |
| Our rank | #2 | #8 |
| Style label | grappler | power puncher |
Style profile
Percentile within the division · the dashed ring is average · outward is always better
Tap a metric to hide or show it — three is the minimum.
Tale of the tape
Division percentile. The hover carries the raw numbers.
Aljamain Sterling
Kevin Vallejos
The numbers behind it
Rates are per 15 minutes of fight time, adjusted for the quality of
what the opponent usually allows. Defence and accuracy figures are percentages. A wider ±
means fewer rounds of evidence, and on the chart it is the whisker along that axis.
| Metric | Aljamain Sterling | Division | Kevin Vallejos | Division |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strikes landed /15 min | 49.4 ± 2.5 13th percentile | 50.3 | 53.7 ± 20.0 69th percentile | 50.3 |
| Strike avoidance absorbed /15 min | 47.6 ± 16.8 98th percentile | 60.6 | 59.3 ± 8.0 62nd percentile | 60.6 |
| Takedown attempts /15 min | 6.58 ± 2.46 95th percentile | 4.70 | 4.57 ± 0.76 51st percentile | 4.70 |
| Takedown defence % | 58 ± 6 58th percentile | 56 | 59 ± 32 70th percentile | 56 |
| Control time s /15 min | 283 ± 112 98th percentile | 197 | 202 ± 31 67th percentile | 197 |
| Striking defence % | 54 ± 2 83rd percentile | 53 | 54 ± 4 61st percentile | 53 |
| Knockdowns /15 min | 0.62 ± 0.04 18th percentile | 0.65 | 0.94 ± 1.72 98th percentile | 0.65 |
| Submission attempts /15 min | 0.46 ± 0.14 38th percentile | 0.53 | 0.45 ± 0.45 30th percentile | 0.53 |
| Metric | Aljamain Sterling | Division | Kevin Vallejos | Division |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strikes landed /15 min | 61.6 ± 2.9 34th percentile | 62.8 | 64.6 ± 74.3 87th percentile | 62.8 |
| Strike avoidance absorbed /15 min | 51.3 ± 15.7 97th percentile | 59.8 | 58.6 ± 46.0 66th percentile | 59.8 |
| Takedown attempts /15 min | 4.48 ± 4.02 97th percentile | 2.32 | 2.26 ± 2.26 45th percentile | 2.32 |
| Takedown defence % | 62 ± 15 79th percentile | 58 | 59 ± 41 62nd percentile | 58 |
| Control time s /15 min | 209 ± 46 97th percentile | 186 | 189 ± 118 66th percentile | 186 |
| Striking defence % | 53 ± 3 18th percentile | 55 | 55 ± 20 71st percentile | 55 |
| Knockdowns /15 min | 1.38 ± 0.28 13th percentile | 1.53 | 1.71 ± 7.11 97th percentile | 1.53 |
| Submission attempts /15 min | 0.24 ± 0.14 82nd percentile | 0.18 | 0.18 ± 0.18 50th percentile | 0.18 |
| Metric | Aljamain Sterling | Division | Kevin Vallejos | Division |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strikes landed /15 min | 54.8 ± 4.8 19th percentile | 55.7 | — | — |
| Strike avoidance absorbed /15 min | 68.3 ± 28.2 96th percentile | 73.8 | — | — |
| Takedown attempts /15 min | 4.65 ± 4.71 96th percentile | 3.75 | — | — |
| Takedown defence % | 58 ± 26 79th percentile | 55 | — | — |
| Control time s /15 min | 190 ± 47 88th percentile | 181 | — | — |
| Striking defence % | 50 ± 4 35th percentile | 51 | — | — |
| Knockdowns /15 min | 0.31 ± 0.01 27th percentile | 0.31 | — | — |
| Submission attempts /15 min | 0.15 ± 0.41 96th percentile | 0.07 | — | — |