Jake Matthews
60%
vs
40%
Our win probability
Your pick
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How it ends
Knockout31.0%
Decision52.7%
Submission16.2%
What moves it most
Upset watch: the model still gives 40% to the underdog. Two fights in five at this price go the other way.
Limited data: at least one of these fighters has a thin or uncertain record, so treat this prediction with caution.
- UFC experience — moves the model toward Tahir Abdullayev (value +2.53)
- difference in rating certainty — no side — this is how certain the ratings are, not who is better (value -1.56)
- rating difference — moves the model toward Jake Matthews (value +1.55)
Tale of the tape
| Jake Matthews | Tahir Abdullayev | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 16-8 | 1-0 |
| Last fight | won vs Carlston Harris (Decision - Unanimous, 2026-05-30) | won vs Jefferson Nascimento (KO/TKO, 2026-06-27) |
| Country | Australia | unknown |
| Height | 71" | 68" |
| Reach | 73" | 73" |
| Age | 32.3 | 29.8 |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Weight class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Our rank | #25 | #48 |
| Style label | balanced | clinch grinder |
Style profile
Percentile within the division · the dashed ring is average · outward is always better
Tap a metric to hide or show it — three is the minimum.
Tale of the tape
Division percentile. The hover carries the raw numbers.
Jake Matthews
Tahir Abdullayev
The numbers behind it
Rates are per 15 minutes of fight time, adjusted for the quality of
what the opponent usually allows. Defence and accuracy figures are percentages. A wider ±
means fewer rounds of evidence, and on the chart it is the whisker along that axis.
| Metric | Jake Matthews | Division | Tahir Abdullayev | Division |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strikes landed /15 min | 51.4 ± 5.2 58th percentile | 48.2 | 49.1 ± 8.7 36th percentile | 48.2 |
| Strike avoidance absorbed /15 min | 49.9 ± 7.1 84th percentile | 54.3 | 52.5 ± 16.3 69th percentile | 54.3 |
| Takedown attempts /15 min | 3.19 ± 1.64 12th percentile | 4.21 | 4.47 ± 2.47 75th percentile | 4.21 |
| Takedown defence % | 64 ± 12 90th percentile | 58 | 62 ± 38 70th percentile | 58 |
| Control time s /15 min | 190 ± 12 52nd percentile | 189 | 192 ± 26 59th percentile | 189 |
| Striking defence % | 55 ± 4 95th percentile | 52 | 52 ± 3 49th percentile | 52 |
| Knockdowns /15 min | 0.67 ± 0.03 26th percentile | 0.68 | 0.68 ± 0.05 41st percentile | 0.68 |
| Submission attempts /15 min | 0.62 ± 0.24 94th percentile | 0.49 | 0.45 ± 0.45 51st percentile | 0.49 |
Nothing to tabulate for this view.
Nothing to tabulate for this view.