39%
vs
61%
Our win probability
Your pick
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How it ends
Knockout35.0%
Decision47.5%
Submission17.5%
What moves it most
Limited data: at least one of these fighters has a thin or uncertain record, so treat this prediction with caution.
- age difference — moves the model toward Dom Mar Fan (value +0.71)
- rating difference — moves the model toward Nikolas Motta (value +1.39)
- returning from a year or more out — moves the model toward Dom Mar Fan (value +1.00)
Tale of the tape
| Nikolas Motta | Dom Mar Fan | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-3 (1 NC) | 1-1 |
| Last fight | lost vs Nazim Sadykhov (KO/TKO, 2025-06-21) | lost vs Kody Steele (Submission, 2026-05-02) |
| Country | Brazil | unknown |
| Height | 69" | 71" |
| Reach | 70" | 75" |
| Age | 33.8 | 26.7 |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Weight class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Our rank | #67 | #78 |
| Style label | balanced | balanced |
Style profile
Percentile within the division · the dashed ring is average · outward is always better
Tap a metric to hide or show it — three is the minimum.
Tale of the tape
Division percentile. The hover carries the raw numbers.
Nikolas Motta
Dom Mar Fan
The numbers behind it
Rates are per 15 minutes of fight time, adjusted for the quality of
what the opponent usually allows. Defence and accuracy figures are percentages. A wider ±
means fewer rounds of evidence, and on the chart it is the whisker along that axis.
| Metric | Nikolas Motta | Division | Dom Mar Fan | Division |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strikes landed /15 min | 48.3 ± 3.8 35th percentile | 47.8 | 46.5 ± 10.4 13th percentile | 47.8 |
| Strike avoidance absorbed /15 min | 63.9 ± 25.6 18th percentile | 58.5 | 58.0 ± 4.6 66th percentile | 58.5 |
| Takedown attempts /15 min | 3.90 ± 3.90 14th percentile | 4.72 | 4.60 ± 0.89 44th percentile | 4.72 |
| Takedown defence % | 58 ± 34 62nd percentile | 54 | 56 ± 15 49th percentile | 54 |
| Control time s /15 min | 176 ± 85 10th percentile | 193 | 198 ± 34 64th percentile | 193 |
| Striking defence % | 52 ± 4 29th percentile | 53 | 51 ± 13 18th percentile | 53 |
| Knockdowns /15 min | 0.78 ± 0.55 83rd percentile | 0.67 | 0.66 ± 0.07 37th percentile | 0.67 |
| Submission attempts /15 min | 0.53 ± 0.53 25th percentile | 0.64 | 0.56 ± 0.56 36th percentile | 0.64 |
Nothing to tabulate for this view.
Nothing to tabulate for this view.