Asu Almabayev
59%
vs
41%
Our win probability
Kyoji Horiguchi
Your pick
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How it ends
Knockout24.3%
Decision56.8%
Submission19.0%
What moves it most
Upset watch: the model still gives 41% to the underdog. Two fights in five at this price go the other way.
- distance striking against distance defence — moves the model toward Kyoji Horiguchi (value -0.16)
- control time against control conceded — moves the model toward Asu Almabayev (value +1.32)
- age difference — moves the model toward Asu Almabayev (value -0.33)
Tale of the tape
| Asu Almabayev | Kyoji Horiguchi | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 7-1 | 9-2 |
| Last fight | won vs Charles Johnson (Submission, 2026-06-27) | lost vs Manel Kape (KO/TKO, 2026-06-20) |
| Country | Kazakhstan | Japan |
| Height | 64" | 65" |
| Reach | 65" | 66" |
| Age | 32.8 | 36.1 |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Weight class | Flyweight | Flyweight |
| Our rank | #5 | #3 |
| Style label | grappler | power puncher |
Style profile
Percentile within the division · the dashed ring is average · outward is always better
Tap a metric to hide or show it — three is the minimum.
Tale of the tape
Division percentile. The hover carries the raw numbers.
Asu Almabayev
Kyoji Horiguchi
The numbers behind it
Rates are per 15 minutes of fight time, adjusted for the quality of
what the opponent usually allows. Defence and accuracy figures are percentages. A wider ±
means fewer rounds of evidence, and on the chart it is the whisker along that axis.
| Metric | Asu Almabayev | Division | Kyoji Horiguchi | Division |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strikes landed /15 min | 48.1 ± 6.6 6th percentile | 51.5 | 52.5 ± 3.2 48th percentile | 51.5 |
| Strike avoidance absorbed /15 min | 45.3 ± 14.8 94th percentile | 53.2 | 44.9 ± 26.3 96th percentile | 53.2 |
| Takedown attempts /15 min | 7.31 ± 4.54 99th percentile | 4.86 | 4.64 ± 0.72 52nd percentile | 4.86 |
| Takedown defence % | 56 ± 11 9th percentile | 59 | 62 ± 14 46th percentile | 59 |
| Control time s /15 min | 275 ± 144 94th percentile | 197 | 231 ± 108 84th percentile | 197 |
| Striking defence % | 55 ± 2 60th percentile | 55 | 59 ± 13 96th percentile | 55 |
| Knockdowns /15 min | 0.60 ± 0.08 11th percentile | 0.63 | 0.77 ± 0.42 82nd percentile | 0.63 |
| Submission attempts /15 min | 0.83 ± 0.56 99th percentile | 0.54 | 0.48 ± 0.18 30th percentile | 0.54 |
| Metric | Asu Almabayev | Division | Kyoji Horiguchi | Division |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strikes landed /15 min | 62.5 ± 7.3 61st percentile | 62.0 | 61.2 ± 8.1 25th percentile | 62.0 |
| Strike avoidance absorbed /15 min | 56.0 ± 18.8 46th percentile | 54.8 | 51.9 ± 28.0 96th percentile | 54.8 |
| Takedown attempts /15 min | 4.27 ± 4.49 82nd percentile | 3.98 | 4.24 ± 2.50 75th percentile | 3.98 |
| Takedown defence % | 62 ± 38 68th percentile | 60 | 60 ± 23 32nd percentile | 60 |
| Control time s /15 min | 173 ± 131 11th percentile | 182 | 193 ± 114 82nd percentile | 182 |
| Striking defence % | 52 ± 6 39th percentile | 53 | 54 ± 11 82nd percentile | 53 |
| Knockdowns /15 min | 1.15 ± 0.04 61st percentile | 1.15 | 1.15 ± 0.02 68th percentile | 1.15 |
| Submission attempts /15 min | 0.27 ± 0.27 54th percentile | 0.29 | 0.26 ± 0.26 39th percentile | 0.29 |
| Metric | Asu Almabayev | Division | Kyoji Horiguchi | Division |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strikes landed /15 min | — | — | 56.2 ± 4.0 50th percentile | 56.2 |
| Strike avoidance absorbed /15 min | — | — | 57.0 ± 13.5 59th percentile | 57.1 |
| Takedown attempts /15 min | — | — | 4.18 ± 0.87 68th percentile | 4.18 |
| Takedown defence % | — | — | 63 ± 38 32nd percentile | 63 |
| Control time s /15 min | — | — | 182 ± 98 50th percentile | 183 |
| Striking defence % | — | — | 49 ± 15 41st percentile | 49 |
| Knockdowns /15 min | — | — | 0.28 ± 0.02 50th percentile | 0.28 |
| Submission attempts /15 min | — | — | 0.21 ± 0.21 68th percentile | 0.22 |