54%
vs
46%
Our win probability
Your pick
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How it ends
Knockout29.5%
Decision53.4%
Submission17.1%
What moves it most
Upset watch: the model still gives 46% to the underdog. Two fights in five at this price go the other way.
- control time against control conceded — moves the model toward Amir Albazi (value +1.05)
- age difference — moves the model toward Alessandro Costa (value +0.23)
- rating difference — moves the model toward Amir Albazi (value +0.43)
Tale of the tape
| Amir Albazi | Alessandro Costa | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 5-2 | 5-3 |
| Last fight | lost vs Kyoji Horiguchi (Decision - Unanimous, 2026-02-07) | won vs Cody Durden (Submission, 2026-07-11) |
| Country | Iraq | unknown |
| Height | 65" | 64" |
| Reach | 68" | 67" |
| Age | 33.1 | 30.8 |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Weight class | Flyweight | Flyweight |
| Our rank | #15 | #24 |
| Style label | balanced | power puncher |
Style profile
Percentile within the division · the dashed ring is average · outward is always better
Tap a metric to hide or show it — three is the minimum.
Tale of the tape
Division percentile. The hover carries the raw numbers.
Amir Albazi
Alessandro Costa
The numbers behind it
Rates are per 15 minutes of fight time, adjusted for the quality of
what the opponent usually allows. Defence and accuracy figures are percentages. A wider ±
means fewer rounds of evidence, and on the chart it is the whisker along that axis.
| Metric | Amir Albazi | Division | Alessandro Costa | Division |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strikes landed /15 min | 49.2 ± 6.3 13th percentile | 51.5 | 52.3 ± 3.5 45th percentile | 51.5 |
| Strike avoidance absorbed /15 min | 56.2 ± 8.1 26th percentile | 53.2 | 54.6 ± 4.2 35th percentile | 53.2 |
| Takedown attempts /15 min | 5.15 ± 0.82 72nd percentile | 4.86 | 4.46 ± 1.19 33rd percentile | 4.86 |
| Takedown defence % | 63 ± 11 49th percentile | 59 | 63 ± 12 59th percentile | 59 |
| Control time s /15 min | 216 ± 50 77th percentile | 197 | 191 ± 18 35th percentile | 197 |
| Striking defence % | 55 ± 2 70th percentile | 55 | 55 ± 1 52nd percentile | 55 |
| Knockdowns /15 min | 0.65 ± 0.08 52nd percentile | 0.63 | 0.80 ± 0.50 84th percentile | 0.63 |
| Submission attempts /15 min | 0.47 ± 0.20 26th percentile | 0.54 | 0.70 ± 0.51 82nd percentile | 0.54 |
| Metric | Amir Albazi | Division | Alessandro Costa | Division |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strikes landed /15 min | 59.0 ± 15.1 11th percentile | 62.0 | — | — |
| Strike avoidance absorbed /15 min | 57.5 ± 13.8 25th percentile | 54.8 | — | — |
| Takedown attempts /15 min | 4.02 ± 0.29 68th percentile | 3.98 | — | — |
| Takedown defence % | 60 ± 6 39th percentile | 60 | — | — |
| Control time s /15 min | 173 ± 42 18th percentile | 182 | — | — |
| Striking defence % | 54 ± 7 89th percentile | 53 | — | — |
| Knockdowns /15 min | 1.12 ± 0.14 18th percentile | 1.15 | — | — |
| Submission attempts /15 min | 0.28 ± 0.05 61st percentile | 0.29 | — | — |
| Metric | Amir Albazi | Division | Alessandro Costa | Division |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strikes landed /15 min | 55.7 ± 5.7 23rd percentile | 56.2 | — | — |
| Strike avoidance absorbed /15 min | 59.2 ± 26.1 23rd percentile | 57.1 | — | — |
| Takedown attempts /15 min | 4.34 ± 2.02 77th percentile | 4.18 | — | — |
| Takedown defence % | 63 ± 4 23rd percentile | 63 | — | — |
| Control time s /15 min | 182 ± 13 32nd percentile | 183 | — | — |
| Striking defence % | 50 ± 13 86th percentile | 49 | — | — |
| Knockdowns /15 min | 0.27 ± 0.04 41st percentile | 0.28 | — | — |
| Submission attempts /15 min | 0.20 ± 0.20 32nd percentile | 0.22 | — | — |