61%
vs
39%
Our win probability
Your pick
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How it ends
Knockout36.4%
Decision46.2%
Submission17.4%
What moves it most
Limited data: at least one of these fighters has a thin or uncertain record, so treat this prediction with caution.
- rating difference — moves the model toward Diyar Nurgozhay (value +1.74)
- difference in rating certainty — no side — this is how certain the ratings are, not who is better (value -1.34)
- UFC experience — moves the model toward Alik Lorenz (value +1.61)
Tale of the tape
| Diyar Nurgozhay | Alik Lorenz | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Last fight | won vs Bruno Lopes (KO/TKO, 2026-08-08) | no earlier UFC fight |
| Country | unknown | unknown |
| Height | 74" | 74" |
| Reach | 74" | 77" |
| Age | 29.6 | 29.8 |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Weight class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Our rank | #34 | unrated |
| Style label | balanced | unknown |