Aleksandre Topuria
45%
vs
55%
Our win probability
Your pick
Loading your picks…
How it ends
Knockout32.7%
Decision50.2%
Submission17.1%
What moves it most
Upset watch: the model still gives 45% to the underdog. Two fights in five at this price go the other way.
Limited data: at least one of these fighters has a thin or uncertain record, so treat this prediction with caution.
- age difference — moves the model toward Santiago Luna (value +0.85)
- rating difference — moves the model toward Aleksandre Topuria (value +0.88)
- reach difference — moves the model toward Santiago Luna (value -1.20)
Tale of the tape
| Aleksandre Topuria | Santiago Luna | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-0 | 2-1 |
| Last fight | won vs Bekzat Almakhan (Decision - Unanimous, 2025-11-22) | lost vs Bryce Mitchell (Submission, 2026-06-06) |
| Country | Germany | U.S. |
| Height | 67" | 69" |
| Reach | 68" | 74" |
| Age | 30.8 | 22.3 |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Weight class | Bantamweight | Bantamweight |
| Our rank | #28 | #39 |
| Style label | balanced | balanced |
Style profile
Percentile within the division · the dashed ring is average · outward is always better
Tap a metric to hide or show it — three is the minimum.
Tale of the tape
Division percentile. The hover carries the raw numbers.
Aleksandre Topuria
Santiago Luna
The numbers behind it
Rates are per 15 minutes of fight time, adjusted for the quality of
what the opponent usually allows. Defence and accuracy figures are percentages. A wider ±
means fewer rounds of evidence, and on the chart it is the whisker along that axis.
| Metric | Aleksandre Topuria | Division | Santiago Luna | Division |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strikes landed /15 min | 49.2 ± 4.1 25th percentile | 49.9 | 50.1 ± 1.3 36th percentile | 49.9 |
| Strike avoidance absorbed /15 min | 56.4 ± 17.9 75th percentile | 59.5 | 55.9 ± 15.6 80th percentile | 59.5 |
| Takedown attempts /15 min | 4.73 ± 0.30 64th percentile | 4.74 | 4.30 ± 1.90 38th percentile | 4.74 |
| Takedown defence % | 64 ± 36 82nd percentile | 58 | 54 ± 18 14th percentile | 58 |
| Control time s /15 min | 198 ± 9 44th percentile | 198 | 200 ± 9 51st percentile | 198 |
| Striking defence % | 55 ± 14 89th percentile | 52 | 54 ± 6 79th percentile | 52 |
| Knockdowns /15 min | 0.68 ± 0.04 55th percentile | 0.68 | 0.76 ± 0.47 84th percentile | 0.68 |
| Submission attempts /15 min | 0.47 ± 0.47 37th percentile | 0.55 | 0.62 ± 0.31 75th percentile | 0.55 |
Nothing to tabulate for this view.
Nothing to tabulate for this view.